The most difficult part begins for Michel Barnier. Barely six weeks after his arrival in Matignon, the Prime Minister defends in the Chamber his first budget, made in just 15 days. The head of Government is expected around the corner, also on his own side. What obstacles will you have to face? Response elements.
•A motion to dismiss
48 hours after the end of the sometimes intense debates in committee, the finance bill arrives in the chamber this Monday afternoon starting at 9:30 p.m. With the first obstacle in their way, an appeal for dismissal filed by La France insoumise. This constitutional tool, if voted by the deputies, allows debates to be stopped before they even begin. To everyone’s surprise, the immigration law was stopped last December with this tool.
On paper, this rejection motion has little chance of being adopted. Neither “the common base”, the term used by Michel Barnier to designate the government coalition, nor the National Rally want to vote in favor. But in the event of an overmobilization of the left and a dispersion of numbers to the right or in the presidential field, the maneuver could pass.
Heavyweights in government-linked political groups, however, opposed the withdrawal of troops via SMS this weekend, making the scenario unlikely.
•Left, LR, macronie, RN: heated discussions on all benches
Then it’s time for trades. The government will first have to confront the left, which has largely revised the budget in committee with 60 billion in new tax revenue.
Tax on super profits that would generate 15 billion euros for the “profits of the crisis”, exceptional tax on maritime transport, taxes on share buybacks… So many measures compatible with the NFP that irritated Michel Barnier on Sunday .
“The effort that everyone must make cannot become a fiscal ‘Lépine competition’,” responded the Prime Minister in the columns of the JDD.
But beyond this expected confrontation, the government will have to fight above all with the right and with Renaissance, its statements of support.
The proof that the budget partly hinders the presidential coalition: the number of amendments. LR deputies presented no less than 728 amendments, closely followed by Renaissance, that is, one third and one half of the amendments presented.
Among the hot topics on the table: the postponement of the indexation of retirement pensions to inflation from January 1 to July 1, 2025. The right had also pointed out black and white in the legislative pact presented by Laurent Wauquiez in July past that “the savings that would be made on the backs of retirees” were “a red line.
Result: after a meeting between LR and Michel Barnier in Matignon last week, Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin spoke this Monday morning on BFMTV of “an opening on small pensions”, suggesting that they could be excluded from the freezing of pensions.
This change would also have the merit of reducing pressure from the RN, which has already said no to this measure.
In the presidential camp they also do not overlook the temporary increase in the tax on companies with a turnover of more than one billion euros, as well as the end of certain exemptions from social contributions for low salaries.
As for the price of electricity, it could also cause a fire. Taxes on electricity bills. expected to increase next Februaryaccording to the budget presented by Matignon last week.
Despite this increase, French people who benefit from a regulated rate subscription should see a 9% reduction in their bill. A gesture considered insufficient by the right in a context of high inflation. You should be able to count on the RN, which aims to achieve some victories, such as the elimination of this increase in taxes on electricity.
It is therefore up to the government to find a fragile balance between the need to pump money into the coffers to counter the exploding deficit without angering its own troops.
• Towards 49.3 and a mess of motions of censure?
“We are committed to letting the discussion develop,” said the prime minister this Sunday at the JDD, while estimating that “49.3 allows us to avoid a blockade.”
In the absence of a relative majority, the option seems very likely with several scenarios. Some are calling for this possibility to be made available very quickly to shorten the debates that will likely ultimately end with this tool.
But if it saves time and avoids high-tension debates, it does not fit well with the dialogue stance that Matignon defends. Élisabeth Borne, who had activated this system no less than twenty times, also suffered greatly from last autumn’s budget sequence.
In the most favorable scenario for the Government, only two 49.3 would be necessary if the budgets were approved by the mixed commission, this body that brings together senators and deputies. Good news for Michel Barnier, which will also allow him to avoid some motions of censure that the opposition may trigger as soon as 49.3 is activated.
The Prime Minister has already survived a first motion of no confidence. But the risk that Matignon’s tenant will end up falling is real if the votes of RN and the left are added. Together, these political forces bring together 307 deputies, many more than the 289 necessary to approve a motion of censure and force him to resign.
Several RN heavyweights have already raised this threat, starting with Jordan Bardella. But will the burning party really face the risk of a new political crisis more than six months before the possibility of a new dissolution? The question is open.
•The possibility of resorting to article 47, a first for the Fifth Republic
Last possibility on the table: resort to article 47 of the Constitution, which allows the National Assembly to have a period of 40 days to vote on the budget. In the absence of a vote, it is sent to the Senate, where the right and the center are in the majority, suggesting a positive result within a period of fifteen days, in accordance with this provision.
The text would then be presented to a joint committee, potentially dominated by the right and the presidential camp. In case of agreement, the budget must still be voted on by the Senate or the National Assembly or validated by 49.3.
If Parliament has not made a decision within 70 days, the government can issue an order. The maneuver, unprecedented in the entire history of the Fifth Republic, would have bad effects while Michel Barnier has never stopped wanting to reach out to Parliament.
Source: BFM TV