The months follow one another and are similar. At the beginning of September, Emmanuel Macron consulted political forces to find a successor to Gabriel Attal. This Friday, December 6, the President of the Republic will once again receive the leaders of various parties and the presidents of various parliamentary groups.
But this time, the perimeter will be reduced to the formations of his camp (Horizons, MoDem, Renaissance), the Socialist Party and the Republican Right (Les Républicains, editor’s note).
The objective was announced during a speech this Thursday, the day after the historic vote on a motion of censure against Michel Barnier: “in the coming days”, to appoint a prime minister.
It will be responsible for forming a “government of general interest that represents all the political forces of a government arc, that can participate in it or at least that undertake not to censor it.”
A priority: avoid any motion of censure
The equation is simple: for a government to be viable, 288 deputies must commit to not voting on a motion of censure. For the Republicans and the Macronists, who supported Michel Barnier, it is necessary to convince another 78 elected officials.
Perhaps starting with the 66 socialists? The head of the PS, Olivier Faure, and the group presidents of the National Assembly and the Senate, Boris Vallaud and Patrick Kanner, will be received in the morning by Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée.
But the PS “is not for sale”, promised Olivier Faure late last night. The socialists want “the left in Matignon” and “the republican front in the National Assembly”, warned Boris Vallaud.
In the case of an agreement between the PS and the central bloc (which is far from guaranteed at this stage, since the divergences in the programs are so significant, editor’s note), would the Republicans remain on board? “Not even Bernard Cazeneuve is sure that this would not cause the loss of a part of the Republican right,” a close friend of Emmanuel Macron told BFMTV earlier this week. “It might have worked in September, but now I doubt it.”
LFI willing to “support” a Prime Minister, according to the program
The truth is that, mathematically, a left-wing personality in Matignon could avoid automatic censorship. Because LFI, who will not be consulted by Emmanuel Macron this Friday and whose participation in a government seems more than excluded, has slightly changed its position.
“If the next Prime Minister applies the measures for which we were elected, such as the repeal of retirement at 64 or the increase in the minimum wage, we will support him; otherwise, we will fight him,” summarized Jean-Luc Mélenchon. TF1 this Thursday. It is no longer about “applying the entire program, nothing more than the program.” Especially since Lucie Castets, a name proposed in recent months by the rebels, is no longer being considered for an appointment in Matignon.
An “arch of government” or “non-censorship agreement” between Renaissance, Republican Right, Modem and Horizons, on the one hand, and PS, EELV and PCF, on the other, could have 331 deputies. In the event of the Republicans’ withdrawal, this arc would be made up of 284 elected officials. However, it could count on support without the participation of the 71 elected officials of the LFI and have a really larger false majority: 355 elected officials.
The RN puts pressure on Macron
On the other hand, unless there is a non-censorship agreement with the RN and its allies, it will be difficult for the “common base” to expand to the right. Because the RN promises censure if “a socialist” or any member of a left-wing party becomes a minister, whether or not they are in Matignon.
“All those who are on the left and the extreme left of the political spectrum, if they are named, it will be censorship on our part,” declared MEP Matthieu Valet on BFMTV.
“We want a patriotic prime minister, who does not come from the left and who does not do tap dance numbers with us,” he insists.
Gabriel Attal, Élisabeth Borne and the deputies of the “central bloc” find themselves, therefore, facing the same problem as the day after the legislative elections. “Would you prefer that the blackmailers of the National Rally keep you at bay or engage in a demanding discussion with the left?” the president of the PS group in the National Assembly, Boris Vallaud, asked them this Thursday.
Source: BFM TV
