Soon outside? Guest this Monday, June 2 in Matignon to discuss the possible implementation of a proportional vote for legislative elections, Bruno Retilleau did not hesitate to put his presence in the government in balance.
After having increased a reform that would lead to “public impotence”, the Interior Minister explained that “all the” open “options were François Bayrou persisted in this direction.
Plus a confrontation than a real threat
The threat of a resignation is barely veiled for which, now halo for its great victory at the head of the Republicans, it is essential for the prime minister, at the head of a very fragile coalition.
He also has the advantage of satisfying his troops who unanimously voted in the political office to say that not in proportional. Risk of permanent political instability in the National Assembly, fears that it will never succeed in the voting budgets, division by almost three of the LR deputies according to a simulation calculated by BFMTV …
On the right, we assume the pressure of François Bayrou to fall into this file. But not a great world believes that Bruno Retailleau, who has already mentioned his resignation on the 1968 agreement between France and Algeria without implementing it, will really continue such reason.
“It is a confrontation that we plan to win, but it is a very technical issue, which is not really easy to understand for the French. We will not leave the government for that,” he acknowledges without headlights, deputy LR Julien Dive with BFMTV.
A certain break but an uncertain calendar
In the right -wing camp, no one doubts that the Interior Minister will end up bending the luggage to act with Macronie and take his autonomy for the presidential elections of 2027.
“We will leave in a moment because staying for a long time, it would mean being responsible for the evaluation of the prime minister that will not be good and explain that of Emmanuel Macron, which is even worse,” says a senator LR.
It remains the right tempo to go with several clues on the table, starting with the budget sequence in the fall with the puzzle of 40 billion euros in savings to find the 2026 budget.
“Disaster Manager”
François Bayrou, who should present his savings clues before mid -July, has already mentioned certain possibilities that bristle the right, starting with social VAT. Matignon could also decide to use retirees or perpetuate the contribution of highly rich people.
“If the prime minister does not listen to us and goes to an increase in taxes, we will leave the government and François Bayrou will end up as Michel Barnier, without a budget and censored,” says Senator LR Marc-Philippe Daubresse.
Very mentioned in recent weeks, the hypothesis seems to have led in the wing, even if only because the right should assume laborious negotiations between the parties to reach a new budget or even assume that it causes a new solution.
“It would be necessary to take the responsibility of the brothel and that, it is not easy when its supporters claim only the order. This is not the right time,” says Jérôme Lavrilleux, former campaign director for Nicolas Sarkozy during the presidential election in 2012 and a right -wing rabbit.
Avoid primary at all costs
Not to mention that the maneuver would not have a very good effect before the municipal elections of March 2026 to convince voters. Bruno Retailleau’s resignation in autumn seems much more likely, since the Lrs will need agreements with the Renaissance to maintain or win large cities such as Marseille, Toulouse, Nantes or Paris.
But once “the hill” of the municipal elections went to resume a word that the Interior Minister likes, the sixties could take Emmanuel Macron as a model. Then, Bercy tenant, had resigned with an accident to embark on the presidential race in September 2016, 8 months before the presidential elections.
“His goal is still to get as late as possible in the race. Once he leaves, he becomes a presidential among another 20 again. While inside, he dominates because he has a separate status,” observes former Renaissance deputy Jean-Baptiste Moreou.
Be careful “to the diamond wedding”
Leaving the government only a few months before the Elysée race would also have the advantage of postponing the Greek calendars the appointment of the LR candidate for the presidential elections.
If some are still defended by a primary like David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes and Xavier Bertrand, the president of the Hauts-de-France region, the interest of Bruno Retailleau must do without him, in the hope of folding the party for the surveys, helped by his exhibition inside.
“I just hope you don’t spend a year saying ‘If you continue, I give up’. It shouldn’t be that the guy who always says will be divorced and that at the end of his diamond wedding,” a senator of LR warns him.
Source: BFM TV
