This Thursday, October 9, the fog is still thick around the next Prime Minister. Who will succeed Sébastien Lecornu, forced to resign four days earlier in a vaudeville whose politics are secret? A personality with a “technical” profile? A left-wing prime minister? Sébastien Lecornu himself? Jean-Louis Borloo?
Summary, awaiting Emmanuel Macron’s decision, which should take place on Friday evening.
• A “technical” government?
Often mentioned in recent months, but never materialized, the idea of a “technical” government is still in the air. Technical, in the sense that it would not include any personality with very political connotations, but rather experts (economist, senior official, diplomat, etc.).
Wednesday afternoon’s interview with Sébastien Lecornu, who returned to the conclusions of his final conversations with the political parties, gives weight to this hypothesis. The resigning Prime Minister declared himself convinced that the next government team should be “completely disconnected from presidential ambitions.”
A form of response to Sébastien Lecornu who questions “partisan appetites”, pointing in particular to Bruno Retailleau, president of the Les Républicains party, who precipitated his fall on Sunday by questioning LR’s participation in the government.
For this type of scenario, the name of Thierry Beaudet, president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (Cese), was mentioned in September 2024, before Emmanuel Macron finally chose Michel Barnier (LR) for Matignon.
It remains to be seen if a government can really be solely “technical.” “What is technical?” asked Sébastien Chenu, vice president of the National Group on BFMTV, this Wednesday, opposing this expression, at least to the consensual nature it implies.
“Do they want more or less immigration? Is it technical or political? It is necessarily political. Do they want more or less taxes? (…) They are necessarily political decisions,” he developed, repeating an argument that is usually heard in the political class.
In other words, the single personality designated for Matignon should not be enough. The underlying problem would remain: how to achieve non-censorship, convincing both the socialists, who ask for the suspension of the pension reform, and the LR deputies, necessarily more reticent in this regard, although evidently they are not completely closed, according to an article in Le Parisien.
• The left in Matignon?
What if the left finally managed to take Matignon? More than a year after the New Popular Front alliance (which includes in particular the LFI, the PS, Les Écologists and the PCF, editor’s note) won first place in the early legislative elections, with a very relative majority, the supporters of this old alliance are calling for it.
Emmanuel Macron has already rejected this option three times. That is why the left, which emphasizes that other governments have failed, feels even more legitimate in demanding power.
The context is also favorable due to the position of the National Rally: the far-right party has warned that it will censure all future governments. The executive, which had already made the left its main interlocutor, is even more obliged to resort to it. At least to find a compromise.
Socialists, environmentalists and communists ask him to go further and appoint a left-wing Prime Minister. “If the Macronists do not want dissolution, I only have one solution for them: coexistence,” warned Marine Tondelier, national secretary of the Ecologists.
This option, like all others, is not without risks. For his followers, the pressure comes from both sides. On the left, the rebels demand the repeal of the pension reform and not a single suspension so as not to censure. And on the right, Bruno Retailleau opposes the suspension of this law carried out by Élisabeth Borne in 2023 so that the legal retirement age progressively increases from 62 to 64 years between now and 2032.
But would the LR head be followed by his party’s deputies, who would prefer to avoid a new dissolution of the Assembly? Not necessarily, since the latter are willing to accept a suspension of the reform, according to the Le Parisien article already cited.
Furthermore, as a sign of the uncertainty and tensions that reign in LR, the spokesperson for the group of deputies, Vincent Jeanbrun, stressed on Wednesday X that “decisions involving a parliamentary group are taken by the deputies of said parliamentary group and not by the party alone.”
Last element: if the left were appointed to head the government, who would represent it? Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party? Your counterpart Marine Tondelier? This is by no means guaranteed, as these personalities are not without presidential ambitions… Like Bernard Cazeneuve, who has no longer belonged to the PS since 2022, whose name was mentioned during previous reshuffles.
• The Jean-Louis Borloo option?
At 74 years old, will Jean-Louis Borloo, minister of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, offer an incredible return to power? His name, far from being unknown, has been mentioned in recent hours among possible prime ministers and commented on by several politicians.
The founder of the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI) has the advantage of being “neither leftist nor Macronist,” said Bruno Retailleau this Thursday during a summit on competitiveness organized by Politico, without specifying whether he supports his candidacy for Matignon.
A little earlier, it was the socialist senator of the North Patrick Kanner who considered in France Info that the appointment of the former mayor of Valenciennes would be a “hell of a bet”. Before backtracking on LCI, claiming it was a “joke.” And explain that Jean-Louis Borloo would carry out “at best a center-right policy.”
Speaking to AFP, Pierre Jouvet, general secretary of the PS, reiterated his party’s position, stating:
“A left-wing prime minister is today the only solution to guarantee the support of the left-wing bloc in the Assembly and the non-censorship of the Macronists.” “The rest is choosing provocation, permanent political instability,” he added.
In any case, the appointment of Jean-Louis Borloo would not lack salt considering his past with Emmanuel Macron. After his first election, the president asked him for a report on the periphery, which was finally buried in 2018. This was seen as a humiliation for the former City Minister Delegate.
Questioned by AFP, the main interested party denied the rumor. “I know absolutely nothing,” he declared, ensuring that he had “no” contact with the president’s entourage.
• An LR Prime Minister once again?
Seriously reassured after the appointment of the Lecornu government, to the point of questioning its future participation, the right no longer wants a Macronist Prime Minister.
She would be willing to participate in a “cohabitation” executive, in the words of the head of LR, Bruno Retailleau. He himself, interviewed on Tuesday by Europe 1-Cnews, clarified that the arrival in Matignon a year ago of Michel Barnier, a member of LR, was a “form of coexistence.”
If, out of prudence, it is better to be careful not to exclude the scenario of a new right-wing Prime Minister, this seems very unlikely. Because several questions arise that represent so many potential obstacles: can Emmanuel Macron really appoint an LR head of government who will at the same time agree to suspend the pension reform to avoid censure?
More simply: would you be willing to try again after Michel Barnier was censured after only three months?
• A renewal of Sébastien Lecornu?
This week’s political series has no shortage of twists and turns. But one episode could still give it scale: the re-election of Sébastien Lecornu into office, with a government necessarily different from the previous one. This possibility was mentioned on Tuesday by several media outlets, including Le Parisien.
It would have the advantage, according to its supporters, of keeping in office the person who has been at the center of the negotiations for a month. Which would be difficult for LR or part of the presidential field to censure, even if it proposed a suspension of the pension reform. However, the Lecornu symbol could potentially constitute a beautiful case for the oppositions.
At the beginning of the week, everyone denounced a government that reflected a continuity of Macronism. What would they say if Emmanuel Macron, while changing the composition of the government, reappointed one of his closest allies as head? “My mission is accomplished”, “I’m not chasing work”, commented the main interested party on France 2.
But in the same interview he seemed to relate his profile to the idea of forming a government “disconnected from presidential ambitions for 2027.” He, the “monk-soldier”, who took care to specify that “he was not” a candidate for the Elysée.
Source: BFM TV
