A fading option, really? After 48 hours of negotiations, the resigning Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, explained this Wednesday afternoon on the set of France 2 that “the prospects for dissolution (of the National Assembly, ed.) are diminishing.”
Emmanuel Macron, for his part, is careful not to make any official statement for the moment. But the Head of State receives most of the political forces this Friday afternoon and will probably end up unveiling a Prime Minister, in accordance with the commitment made in recent days. A way out of the crisis that does not involve sending voters to the polls to elect new deputies? Caution.
A high-risk dissolution for the Renaissance
The dissolution letter is double-edged. Several polls published in the summer are enough to make part of the chamber break out in a cold sweat, starting with the Macronists, who could return with a number of elected officials reduced by half. Before the dissolution in the summer of 2024, the presidential side had 169 deputies. Only 91 remain. New legislation could put them below the 50 mark.
On the right, although several by-elections in recent weeks have produced good results, no one is in a hurry to return to the voters.
For Sébastien Lecornu, if the parties have no interest in dissolving, they also have no interest in overthrowing a new government. Hence the idea that “a path of passage” is possible in the coming weeks to have a budget and guarantee a certain governmental stability.
This is the official version. In reality, even in the event of the appointment of a Prime Minister from the central bloc or one who does not come from the left, be it Sébastien Lecornu or another personality such as Jean-Louis Borloo, stability in the coming months seems complicated.
“Escape” from the fall
Barring a major setback by Emmanuel Macron in suspending the pension reform and in the absence of a left-wing Prime Minister, all deputies of the New Popular Front will vote in favor of censure, that is, 195 elected officials.
“Now I censor everything,” has already warned Marine Le Pen, president of the RN deputies, who can boast of being able to convince the 122 elected officials, to which we must add Eric Ciotti’s troops, that is, a total of 140 deputies. In total, there are 335 votes to censure a Prime Minister in the Assembly.
“If it is someone from the presidential camp who is appointed or if it is Sébastien Lecornu who is confirmed, I don’t see how he will escape the fall,” acknowledges Jean-Baptiste Moreau, a member of Renaissance’s executive management.
And if a left-wing prime minister who has a free hand in pension reform is appointed, a part of the chamber could also suffer censure. A part of LR could try to overthrow him, as well as certain elected members of the Renaissance, the group of Horizontes deputies and, therefore, the elected members of RN and their allies.
“There are not many other options”
A new censorship would return Emmanuel Macron to the front line. After trying three different Prime Ministers in one year, would the Head of State really have any choice but to organize new legislative elections to try to get out of the trap?
The hypothesis is considered credible enough to appear in a note from the Senate Finance Committee.
“A new dissolution would seem like a nightmare if in the end we had the same Assembly as today. But I don’t know if we will have many other possibilities on the table,” acknowledges a Macronist deputy.
A new National Assembly as fragmented as the current one would hardly change the political situation. Worse still, it would mean that to get out of the political crisis, the Head of State would have nothing left but his exit, especially since it is no longer a taboo. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe called on Tuesday for “early elections”, as did the LR president of the Ile-de-France region, Valérie Pécresse, and the mayor of Cannes, LR, David Lisnard.
“Those who advocate a new dissolution want the resignation of the President of the Republic. It is very serious,” says Julien Dray, former advisor to François Mitterrand.
A possible LR-RN alliance
Another possibility with a very bitter taste for the Head of State in the event of dissolution: waiting for the RN to considerably increase its number of elected members and manage to reach an agreement with the right, exceeding 289 elected members, a guarantee of stability. Until now, the LRs have always said no. But little by little the possibility becomes less and less unlikely.
“We don’t just have disagreements with the RN,” former government spokesperson Sophie Primas explained to RTL on Wednesday.
“The spirit of my words was to indicate that at this thorny moment in our political life, we have an imperative need to find a way to provide France with a budget,” Senator LR clarified then.
“Explode the limits of our imagination”
Another small clue that shows that a possible alliance is not impossible: the organization of partial legislative elections on Sunday in Tarn-et-Garonne. Bruno Retailleau called for a vote in the second round for the candidate of Éric Ciotti, now an ally of the RN and not for his opponent, a PS candidate supported in particular by Renaissance.
“Do you realize that, in the end, it is a dissolution that brings the RN to Matignon and that saves Emmanuel Macron? We are in the process of exploding the limits of our imagination,” observes a resigned ministerial advisor.
“I have the feeling that Emmanuel Macron is just trying to buy time to hold out until the end of his mandate. And if the new legislative elections allow him to, he will do so,” says Gaspard Gantzer, former communications advisor to François Hollande.
In fact, it is the unknown variable of the position of the head of state that will play the determining role. Asked about his current position, Emmanuel Macron’s entourage did not respond to BFMTV. “My habit is not to deprive myself of constitutional power, because if political groups decided to have a totally irresponsible approach and blockade the country, perhaps I would find myself in a situation in which I would have to use the Constitution,” declared the President of the Republic a few weeks ago.
Source: BFM TV
