A few days after the return of the deputies on January 9, the President of the Government tries again to demine an explosive social turn, between pension reform and inflation. If the starting age extension is the dossier that tops the list for the next few weeks, Matignon will have to deal with other explosive issues in January.
The Prime Minister again set course on the pensions file this Tuesday morning before calmly welcoming the social partners for final discussions.
• A highly criticized pension reform
Although he assured that leaving at 65 was not “a totem” on France info, the head of government announced that the text would be presented to the Council of Ministers on January 23. The reform, whose guidelines will be presented on January 10, should be applied “from the end of the summer of 2023”, as Emmanuel Macron stated during his wishes on December 31.
Problem: The government is currently unanimous against you. The unions are fiercely opposed to this reform, including the most reformist like the CFDT. This is the first time in over a decade that the social partners have come together around pensions.
The LR deputies, on whom the Executive counted a lot to approve its reform in the Assembly, seem to hesitate. Éric Ciotti, the new head of the movement, said that he wanted to “contribute” “to this reform” if it saves the system.” Alain Marleix, the head of the right-wing elected representatives in the Assembly, signaled his staunch opposition, as did the RN and all the Nupes.
• Around 49.3 to extend the retirement age
If the executive tries to put water in his wine, promising to take into account long runs and hard races, the French remain largely opposed. Only 21% of them are in favor of postponing the legal retirement age according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV.
The use of article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be approved without going through the vote of the deputies, then seems very likely, in the absence of an absolute majority of the executive. It would be the first time in the Fifth Republic that a pension reform would be adopted in this way.
• A high-stakes immigration bill
Another hot topic on the government table: the draft law on foreigners that will be presented to the Council of Ministers in the coming weeks. Gérald Darmanin will defend this text with Olivier Dussopt. The Minister of Labor is expected on duty after the arrival of 234 migrants from the Ocean Viking in November at the port of Toulon. Departures from reception centers for unaccompanied minors, confusion around expulsions… his management of the file has been criticized by the right and the RN.
If the Minister of the Interior has multiplied the winks in the direction of his former political friends -pretending to defend “everything that the LR have always asked for”-, one of the axes of the reform does not pass. Right-wing deputies are hardly enjoying the creation of a residence permit for undocumented workers in sectors in tension.
A real stone in the shoe for the government that cannot, here again, do without your support to approve its immigration reform. A setback in this area would be especially symbolic, since the Government has managed since June to have all its texts voted on, with the notable exception of the State budget and social security.
• Rising energy prices amid nuclear reform
The last obstacle for the government: energy. The government knows that a turnaround is expected when the price of gas and electricity bills rises 15% this year against a backdrop of high inflation. Enough to highlight the bill that wants to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy in France, activating the construction of six EPR reactors in the coming years.
In full tension over the country’s electricity supply, the text could take the appearance of a catalyst for the economic difficulties of the French. The renewable energy bill, whose debates took place in a fairly serene environment, will be voted on January 10.
It also has a symbolic value, while the end of the reduction in the pump – replaced by a check for 100 euros for the “big rollers” – and its consequences in the portfolios of the French, are closely followed by the executive.
With an anguish: a possible coagulation of discontent. Calls to relaunch the Yellow Vests movement on January 7 have multiplied in recent days, a few days after the strikes, far from unions, doctors and SNCF controllers.
Source: BFM TV
