A week after the return of the pension reform to the National Assembly, the Executive continues to believe in a vote in good and due form by the deputies. At least officially. The hypothesis of 49.3, that constitutional precept that allows a text to be adopted, without going through the vote of the deputies, is actually in everyone’s head.
“Our objective is that this text be adopted and that it be adopted without 49.3. Our majority will be united to vote for it,” said the Minister of Public Administration, Stanislas Guérini, this Thursday in the Public Senate.
“Impossible to know which side the coin will fall on”
With relief: The Senate passed Article 7 lowering the starting age to 64 overnight Wednesday-Thursday and LR senators are hopeful they can pass the entire bill by midnight Sunday. It must be said that the senatorial right has not stopped voting in recent years for the lowering of the retirement age during the Social Security budgets.
But in reality, the calculators turn in the ranks of the macronie while the use of 49.3 seems more likely than ever at the Palais-Bourbon. In the absence of an absolute majority, the right is essential for the text to be approved and must contribute at least forty votes to the government. But the group is very divided.
If Olivier Marleix, the president of the group, and Éric Ciotti, the head of the movement, are in favor of the reform, at least a dozen elected LRs are against it, starting with Aurélien Pradié. A small handful are still undecided and could become abstainers.
“We have 64 auto-entrepreneurs out of the 64 LR deputies. Each one has their little store. It is impossible to know which side the piece will fall on”, sums up a Renaissance deputy.
Wavering on the banks of the macronistas
A contributor to the LR group is in the same vein, explaining not “in order to make an exact count.” Elisabeth Borne has tried, however, to put some binder, adding ballast to long careers, an essential requirement for some of the deputies on the right, as in the cousin of mothers.
“I hope this law is voted on, that everyone can assume their responsibilities. We have had discussions with even opposition groups to ensure that a maximum of deputies vote for this reform,” the prime minister explained on Monday night in France. 5 .
But, another thorn in Matignon’s side, Renaissance is far from doing the math in its own ranks. 3 deputies, including former minister Bárbara Pompili, made known during a meeting of the group this week their reluctance to vote in favor of the reform.
“The question of political coherence” for Horizons and the Modem
The answer was clear: the leadership of the group in the Assembly has decided that any elected official who votes against or abstains will be excluded, according to information from BFMTV.
“We ensure the unity of our group. In the event of a problem, we cannot say that it will be the fault of Renaissance”, deciphers Guillaume Karasbian, president of the economic affairs commission and close to the group’s number 1, Banco Aurora.
Suffice it to say that all eyes are on Horizons, with whom very degraded relations have been exposed with the rejection of two bills, one on the restoration of minimum sentences and another on the disqualification of perpetrators of aggravated violence. Yannick Favennec (related to Horizons) or Modems Richard Ramos and Philippe Bolo hesitate.
“If our partners did not vote for this measure contained in the presidential program, the question of political coherence would arise”, judges the deputy and spokesperson for the group Prisca Thevenot.
The “significant political cost” of 49.3
As for the LIOT deputies who include many centrists and ex-macronistas, the majority should vote against the text. Suffice it to say that the government, which has no intention of backing down despite pressure from the unions, has no choice but to pull out the 49.3 cartridge.
“Obviously we would all prefer to vote and ultimately have the bill passed. But between a rejection of the text because we do not have enough support or a 49.3, we will opt for the second option ”, assumes an elected macronista.
It is that the use of this constitutional weapon sends the wrong signal to the President of the Government in a political context that is already very complicated, between standing unions and the French who reject the pension reform in their majority.
“It is a major political coup. It will mean in a way that we have not been successful in our commitment to convince neither the French nor the deputies”, laments a deputy from the left of the majority.
A first for a pension reform
And to point a finger at the previous 49.3 used by the Prime Minister – 10 since the start of the mandate: “On the budgetary texts adopted in this way, people understand. We cannot make France work without a State or Security budget Social. Hay, it’s really more delicate.”
With the exception of the pension by points approved in February 2020 by 49.3 and then abandoned due to Covid-19, all the reforms linked to the increase in the retirement age have been voted by Parliament.
Source: BFM TV
