After the vote in the Senate, the approval in the Assembly? The week ahead is more decisive than ever for the government, eager to get its pension reform approved despite persistent opposition from the streets and the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Next step on Wednesday with the mixed commission, made up of seven deputies and seven senators, to try to find a compromise text between the National Assembly and the Senate. In the event of a conclusive commission – the most probable scenario in terms of its composition – the new text will be submitted to a vote by the Senate and then by the National Assembly.
Currently, 189 deputies, including 173 from the majority, have declared their intention to vote for the reform according to the BFMTV counter. In other words, a favorable vote on the bill in the National Assembly is very unlikely at the moment. However, in the event that Elisabeth Borne does not use 49.3 for the text to be voted on and if the Lower House decides to vote against it, this does not mean that the reform is definitively abandoned by the ‘executive’. Explanations.
Scenario n°1: resumption of the parliamentary shuttle
If the National Assembly votes against the pension reform bill, the government effectively has two options.
You can initially decide to restart the text in a parliamentary shuttle: the reform then returns to the Senate, to the National Assembly and this for an indefinite number of comings and goings.
The only limit: article 47-1 of the Constitution that limits the duration of debates in Parliament to 50 days. This was activated by the government, which opted to integrate its reform into a social security financing reform bill (PLFRSS). A shuttle therefore limited in time since the debates must end, at the latest, on March 26 at midnight. An option that the government is studying, according to our information collected from members of the majority, which would allow it to have more time to try to reach the 287 deputies necessary to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Therefore, there may be several rereadings during this period and each time the text reaches the National Assembly, the executive may decide to activate article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows it to commit its responsibility to the national representation.
Scenario n°2: “last word” of the National Assembly
Another option for the government: to initiate the so-called “last word” procedure. So there is only one and last reading of the text for each room. And if it is impossible for the National Assembly and the Senate to adopt the same text, it is the National Assembly that has the “last word” by vote. A scenario that does not prevent the Government from resorting again if it so wishes to 49.3.
Source: BFM TV
