A “call to arms within the PSD” by a former prime minister who secured two outright majorities for the party. A “natural” speech by a former Social Democratic president who wants to reinforce the image of an alternative force to the government of António Costa. An intervention from someone who is very angry with the current situation in the country. Here’s how political analysts interviewed by DN look at Cavaco Silva’s latest public intervention. With a common denominator: last Saturday it was not so much the former president of the republic, which Cavaco is, who climbed the pulpit to destroy the government: it was the former leader of the PSD, a patron of the party .
António Costa Pinto, coordinating researcher at the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences (ICS), points to three factors underlying a “particularly violent speech” – even for Cavaco Silva, who on several occasions has harshly criticized the socialist executive. On the one hand “a genuine concern for his party, which is currently facing challenges on the right that do not make life easy for him”. On the other hand, taking advantage of a political moment “which is an excellent opportunity to grow” the image of the PSD as a political alternative. And third, a “genuine dissatisfaction with the problems facing the government”. But it is the first aspect that stands out: “It is a speech to mobilize the hosts to come to the aid of their party. What is fundamentally at stake is the strengthening of the current leadership of the PSD”.
What weight do Cavaco Silva’s words have in the case of a former president of the republic? Speaking of a “call to arms within the PSD”, for António Costa Pinto it was not so much the condition of the former head of state that was infamous during last Saturday’s intervention: “It is the criticism of a former PSD prime minister with two absolute majorities”. And since it is a speech that is “important to parts of the right-wing electorate”, “it is not worth thinking that it carries much weight”: “It has an impact on social-democratic militancy, but it does not have a major impact on the electoral attitude of the Portuguese. Perhaps for the older electorate. But for a significant part of the Portuguese population, Cavaco Silva is already a figure of the past”. It would be a very different matter if Cavaco Silva’s voice had been joined by Pedro Passos Coelho’s – “it probably would have had a bigger impact”.
António Costa Pinto also does not believe that the intervention of the former holder of the presidency will reach the bills of the current president of the republic: “The presidency is a one-person body led by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, which is self-sufficient. The impact in Belém is zero”.
Viriato Soromenho-Marques, professor at the Faculty of Arts of the University of Lisbon, also sees a limited effect in Cavaco Silva’s intervention. “It has weight in its political space, but I don’t think it has great expansion potential” further, he argues, arguing that the fact that the former president of the republic is targeting the government, but also Belém – contradicting Marcelo’s speech that there is currently no political alternative to socialist rule – ultimately outweighs road to executive reparations: “Criticism of the President of the Republic Weakens Criticism of the Government”. Especially since the current head of state made for this analyst a “realistic analysis of the costs/benefits of a situation that is far from famous”. When we have “a very slow rise in PSD and a very fast rise in Chega, with whatever guarantees [Cavaco Silva] confirms in such a decisive way that the PSD is an alternative”, he wonders, defending that this is a certainty “based on the faith of a militant”. Viriato Soromenho-Marques also says he does not believe the former Social Democratic leader’s speech will affect Belém’s reports: “I don’t think Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa puts too much weight on Cavaco Silva’s opinion, I think he will give more importance to other indicators, of popularity, more related to public opinion and published opinion”.
“Soares never got confused with the PS again”
Last Saturday, during the closing of the 3rd National Assembly of Social Democratic Mayors, Cavaco Silva gave a devastating portrait of the Socialist executive, whom he accused of lying, of “tricks”, “propaganda”, “populism”, “hypocrisy – and the list could get longer: “I never thought it would be possible for a government to sink so low,” Cavaco summed up, in a speech in which he also defended that the PSD is an alternative to the current government.
A speech that, for Viriato Soromenho-Marques, is “natural” in Cavaco Silva, more than some of the interventions he has made in the past: “It is the intervention most justified by the appeal of reality since he left the Presidency”. And if they were particularly devastating words for the government, the analyst countered that “we’ve never been in a situation like this either.” “Cavaco Silva is very angry”. And he’s not alone: ”There are a lot of people angry about what’s happening, left and right”.
But there is one aspect that Soromenho-Marques describes as more “surprising”. “Cavaco Silva has always been involved in politics and placed himself a few levels above traditional politicians. And now he openly appears as a PSD militant, legitimizing what I think is excessive and even counterproductive,” he says – “What the PSD leadership would need was a former president to support it and not the militant Cavaco Silva”.
But is Cavaco a far cry from Mário Soares, another former president of the republic who was also highly critical of the administration, and then from Pedro Passos Coelho? “Even Mário Soares, who was more fiery, let’s call him that, who made a speech not as calculated or calculating as Cavaco Silva, when he wanted to support the PS, he never lost sight of his place in history”. “He has never been confused with the PS,” he argues. As for the reaction of the socialists, Soromenho-Marques does not waste many words: “The PS can say what it wants. All it has to say is that there are responsibilities to be taken on.”
“Everything got more exciting”
For political scientist José Adelino Maltez, Cavaco Silva “humbly donned the overalls of a” social-democratic militant and drew on his “deep political intuition” to deliver “a very pragmatic speech” and say something “very simple” to his party: “They need to grow eight to nine percent.” “He gave the speech he thinks will stop the vote for Chega. It was an act of militancy and support for Luís Montenegro”, he adds. As for the allegations that the former president of the republic has lost the “sense of state” that should guide the action of a former president of the republic, the political scientist devalues: “This is a critique of primary anti -Cavaquistas. He chose this path, it was no mistake.” “It’s political dialectics, it’s political games” and there is no evil in the world: “Politics is so interesting. It has only become more exciting.”
Source: DN
