Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did well to keep the government in office (54%), even if António Costa did badly to keep João Galamba (73%). But the prime minister needs to overhaul the executive branch (79%). These are the conclusions of an Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF, which also shows that a country is divided on the government’s chances of survival until the end of the legislature: 44% believe it will last until October 2026, 42% the President of the Republic will fire him first.
The majority of Portuguese did not want an early election and believe the president was right to oppose calls to solve the political crisis through the “atomic bomb”. In fact, keeping the current government in place is the preferred solution for most party segments in the sample, including PS voters (71%) and PSD voters (40%). Yet at least 40% of respondents favored either the resignation of the executive, forcing António Costa to present a new cast (18%), or the more radical solution of removing the Assembly of the Republic dissolve, causing a trip to the polls (22%). The latter would be the best option for Chega and Iniciativa liberal voters.
Government reorganization
If the majority prefers to keep the government in office, it does not mean that it agrees with António Costa’s decisions. On the contrary. This can be seen immediately with regard to the resignation of the Minister of Infrastructure, João Galamba, after the “regrettable” episode in his office: 73% think he should have left, including socialist voters (64%).
Another sign of dissatisfaction is the fact that even more (79%) advocate a thorough overhaul of the government (73% of those who voted for the PS). It would be a good remedy for António Costa to overcome the political crisis (69%), they say. Even if the majority believes that the socialist leader is permanently harmed by the successive episodes related to the TAP case (51%). Only his party’s voters think it will be temporary damage (49%), or that there will be no image damage for the prime minister (14%).
fall with Europeans
Perhaps it is the majority view that the damage to António Costa will be permanent, which explains the division of opinion over the government’s ability to fulfill its mandate to the end. Even if the majority agrees with the continuity of the executive (54%), far fewer believe the legislature will be fulfilled (44%), only two percentage points more than those who currently presume an early end (42%). By the way, this is the majority prediction (or wish) among PSD voters (64%), but also for Chega, Bloco and Liberals.
When those 42% of respondents are asked when the government will finally be dismissed by the President of the Republic, the majority (51%) lean towards the period following the European elections, in the case of the socialists who clearly defeated. But there is still a large group (37%) who think it will be July next year, once the conclusions of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry TAP are known.
TOKEN TECHNOLOGY
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events.
The fieldwork took place between 25 and 30 May 2023 and collected 808 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal. Sampling was performed based on quotas obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), based on the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education level. For a probabilistic sample of 808 interviews,
the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.4%) Study responsibility: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basil.
Source: DN
