The existence of hostages is one of the factors that contribute to the stagnation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, considers José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes, researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations (IPRI).
In statements in TSF Forum This Monday, José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes explains that the Hamas hostages “are, apparently, scattered throughout the territory of Gaza, and it will be very difficult to achieve their release alive.”
“Israel’s own actions in trying to achieve this release could eventually kill the Hamas members guarding them, but also kill the hostages themselves,” so the Israelis must proceed with caution. “By Hamas’s logic, this is obviously one of the most valuable bargaining chips it has to stop the offensive.”
For the researcher, the impact that a military operation of this scale in Gaza has on the Palestinian population and the suffering of civilians is certainly part of “Hamas’s political calculation.”
The terrorist group anticipated that “Israel’s reaction would be enormous military force used against Gaza and certainly represented that this would cause enormous damage, mass escapes, deaths among the civilian population and certainly this was represented as a desired outcome for Hamas’s political purposes.” “
“Israel only has bad options at this point,” says José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes. “The conflict will be an immense human drama, as we are already seeing.”
José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes recalls that the Middle East has not had peace for several years and that it is not possible to look at the Palestinian-Israeli conflict without considering Iran’s position.
“There is a silent war, a war in the shadows, that has been going on for a long time between Israel and Iran,” with murders, “bombings for which sometimes no one takes open responsibility (…) It is inevitable to consider it.” “that what we are seeing right now in Palestine cannot be disconnected from this dynamic in the region,” he notes.
The political rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, sponsored by the United States, has been pointed out by many as one of the objectives of the violent attack by Hamas.
Last September, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reported progress in discussions on possible normalization with Israel, but a source close to the Saudi government said on Saturday that discussions had been suspended due to the conflict with Hamas.
This process of normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia “completely interests Hamas in its logic of defending the Palestinian cause,” says José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes.
Source: TSF
