“If elected, I will be president for one term,” Lula da Silva said on October 25, 2022, a year ago this Wednesday. “Nature is ruthless,” justified the 77-year-old President of the Republic of Brazil, on the eve of the elections he would win. In February, already sworn in, he admitted that he had run for office for the first time in 2026. In August, the Workers’ Party (PT) published a resolution in which, in two of the 37 items on the 2024 municipal elections, they expressed the position of the historical leader defends. -candidacy. And today, party leaders privately admit that Lula has plans A, B and C to succeed him.
“There is no one in the PT with the hope of finding a ‘new Lula’. This shows wisdom on the part of the party, as Lula’s leadership as a political phenomenon emerged from a very specific historical context that will not be repeated” , the spokesperson said. Celso Rocha de Barros, sociologist, newspaper columnist Folha de S. Paulo and author of the book PT, a history.
“If the economy does well in 2026, and Lula does too, get ready…”, in turn, warned Ricardo Noblat, a journalist who has been following current political events in Brasilia since 1982, about a possible fourth Lula government. a column on the Metropoles website.
In that August resolution of the PT leadership, point 37 states that “in the 2024 municipal elections, the party must contribute to the necessary transformations in the country to re-elect Lula in 2026.” According to point 29 of the text, “this third Lula government prepares the ground for a fourth Lula government.”
In interviews, the President of the Republic himself usually starts by calling it “irresponsible” to talk about 2026 in 2023 and then jokes with the example of Joe Biden, candidate for his own succession in the United States, at the age of 81 . “This is an incentive. I am younger than him,” he said on the SBT channel. The other broadcaster, RedeTV, showed restraint: “If there is a delicate economic situation in the country at that time and I am healthy…”
The nuance lies in the economic situation: according to Noblat, it is more likely that Lula will be a candidate again ‘if the economy does well’, but the president himself sees ‘a delicate economic situation’ as the ideal scenario for the new term.
Plan D
That’s where the final ‘Plan D’ comes in: Fernando Haddad (PT), 60 years old, Minister of Finance. For Bruno Boghossian, newspaper columnist Folha de S. Paulo“Lula is a natural candidate for re-election if the economy is strong and the government’s assessment keeps pace, but this could also be the opportunity to pass the baton within the PT.”
And specifically for Haddad, who is not only Lula’s own appointed successor, but also, as head of Finance, most directly responsible for the health, or lack thereof, of the economy in 2026. ‘The president can therefore, imagine candidate for re-election if the dispute is tough or even open the way if the winds are favorable,” concludes Boghossian.
Haddad, who like Lula is also starting to classify any discussion of 2026 as “irresponsible”, has already publicly defended the PT having a candidate in 2026. He just does not say whether he can be that candidate, because he ‘can’ within the scope of his ministry.
In terms of political tactics, however, Haddad seems to want to close the doors to left-wing alternatives other than the PT that emerge. First, Geraldo Alckmin, current Vice President, former Governor of São Paulo and former presidential candidate, or Flávio Dino, Minister of Justice and former Governor of Maranhão, both from the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB).
“It’s too early to talk about this, our democracy has only left the hospital emergency room for now, there is still no forecast for discharge. If we continue to put electoral interests above all else, we risk electing another insignificant idiot like Bolsonaro, but the PSB has these two exceptional names for a possible presidential candidacy in 2026,” said Carlos Siqueira, President of the PSB. DN.
In the event that Lula does not run for office again, the PT is working on several boards to clear the way for Haddad and close that of Alckmin and Dino. A report by the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo has already speculated about the “vice” as a candidate in 2026 for the government of São Paulo, a state he governed four times, and the Minister of Justice is the most talked about candidate for the newly appointed vacancy retired judge Rosa Weber at the Federal Supreme Court. Conversely, Haddad has traveled to COP27, the Brics meeting or the G20 meeting, arm in arm with Lula, who makes a point of introducing him to key international leaders.
However, there is an age factor: although doctors praise Lula’s “iron health”, the “ruthless nature” hinted at by the Brazilian president has already been noted in recent hip surgeries, which take a long time to recover, and in eyelids.
At the right
Research institutes are also already tracking politicians’ moves to the right before 2026. All possible successors to former President Jair Bolsonaro, who were not eligible until 2030, were tested by Paraná Pesquisas in a presidential poll against Lula.
In the all-name scenario, Lula came in at 36.6%, well ahead of Tarcísio de Freitas, the current governor of São Paulo and considered Bolsonaro’s most likely successor, with 12.7%.
Also mentioned were Simone Tebet, Lula’s Minister of Planning but still seen as a center alternative, with 7.4%, Sergio Moro, former Bolsonaro minister and now senator, with 6.7%, Ciro Gomes, usual center candidate, with 6.3%, Romeu Zema, Governor of Minas Gerais, with 5.7%, Ratinho Junior, Governor of Paraná, with 4.6%, Eduardo Leite, Governor of Rio Grande do Sul, with 2.1%, Tereza Cristina, Bolsonaro’s former minister and now senator, with 1.9%, and Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás, with 1.2%. Almost 15% do not know or vote blank. In three other scenarios, but each with fewer names, Lula also wins with a big advantage. Paraná Pesquisas did not test Haddad’s name.
Source: DN
