The OECD once again lowered its growth forecasts for Europe this year and next, which will be the area of advanced economies that will take the longest to recover, while the United States once again shows its resilience.
In the semi-annual report published this Wednesday, the OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates “a soft landing” for all advanced economies, after confirming that interest rate increases are producing the desired effects in containing inflation. inflation.
Emerging countries are expected to register a more dynamic performance globally, allowing the world economy to grow by 2.9% in 2023, slowing in 2024 to 2.7%, before recovering to 3% the year following.
The United States appears stronger than expected, which is why the authors of the study predict a growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.4% this year (two tenths above what was expected in September and three tenths above what was forecast in June) and 1.5% in 2024 (two tenths above what was forecast in September).
The slowdown expected for the coming months in the world’s leading power (as in the vast majority of countries in the world) should lead to a slight acceleration until reaching a rate of 1.7% in 2025.
The situation is clearly less favorable in the Old Continent: in the euro zone, this year growth, according to the OECD, will be limited to a meager 0.6% (three tenths less than expected in June), with a fall of activity in a key country such as Germany (-0.1%) and relatively disappointing figures in France (0.9%) and Italy (0.7%).
The positive surprise for the euro zone in 2023 is Spain, with GDP growth of 2.4%, the highest in the group, three tenths above what was expected in June and one tenth above what was expected in September.
For Portugal, the OECD revised its forecasts downward, now pointing to growth of 2.2% for this year, 1.2% for 2024 and 2% for 2025.
The authors of the study also lowered their growth forecasts for the euro zone in 2024, given the high financing costs and the high level of uncertainty, and kept them at 0.9% (six tenths less than in June and two tenths less than in September) and it will be necessary to wait until 2025 to see a slightly more encouraging rate of 1.5%.
Source: TSF
