The European political party Identity and Democracy (ID, which includes far-right parties) would set a historic record in the European Parliament, with 87 seats (plus 14), if the European elections were to take place today, according to a projection released by Europe Elects , body that analyzes election data.
According to this survey, the ID – to which the Portuguese party Chega belongs – would be the fourth political force, with 11.7%, surpassing the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, right), who would have elected 82, 22 more than in the current elections. legislature.
‘This is the highest number ever [o ID] had in our projections”, which according to Europe Elects means a “record number” for this political group, which makes a projection, with a 95% confidence interval, of how voters would vote if the European elections were held today.
“The month of November brought parliamentary elections in the Netherlands with a result that was different than expected, which also has some influence on our seat projection,” the organization said.
The three largest factions would remain the same and with a “comfortable absolute majority” (405 out of 705 seats), with losses on the left and gains on the right.
The centre-right group European People’s Party (PPE, which brings together PSD and CDS-PP) has 175 elected representatives (22.4%), seven fewer than in 2019, while the Socialists and Democrats (S&D, which is part of the PS), would Losing 13 seats, to 141 (18.3%). The innovative Europe (of which the Liberal Initiative is part) would decrease from 108 to 89 MEPs (10.5%).
The group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) would see the largest increase: 20 extra seats, to 82.
On the left, the Greens (which also includes the independent deputy Francisco Guerreiro) would be the ones to lose the most seats – 22 fewer, to 52 (7.2%) –, while the Left group (Bloco de Esquerda and PCP) would lose the would reach 38 seats. elected (5.7%), three fewer than in the current parliamentary term.
The non-registered parties (NI) would have received 52 seats (minus four, 6.1%), while the (still) non-affiliated parties would have elected four.
With these results, third place would now be open to three groups: Renovar, ID or Conservatives, while positions six and seven would be contested between the unregistered and the Greens. The eighth group would be chosen from the left or from the unaffiliated who are not currently represented in the chamber.
These changes are explained by Europe Elects with multiple developments of national parties.
The ID group’s gains are mainly due to three factors: in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party “performed better than the polls in the elections and is now expected to have five additional seats”.
In France, the National Union (of Marine Le Pen) rose three places, and in Bulgaria the Volya movement (far right) is now associated with the ID rather than the NI in this projection. On the other hand, the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) loses two seats compared to the previous month.
The left-wing group’s losses come mainly from the French Communist Party (PCF), which would lose representation to four seats.
Similarly, the changes for non-affiliated parties are also affected by the transition from the Spanish Somar movement to the Greens group.
The Danish Liberal Alliance will also join the PPE and not Renovar, resulting in a change of two seats.
Source: DN
