This Tuesday, some 240 million Americans are invited to vote for the traditional midterm elections, or intermediate elections. Voters must completely renew the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, 36 state governors, and vote in numerous local referendums.
As President Joe Biden said again on Monday, nothing less than American democracy is at stake, as fears of an eruption of violence still hang over the country, two years after the Capitol invasion.
Change of government in the Chamber?
Currently, the Democrats – the party of President Joe Biden – control the House of Representatives, with 221 elected, against 212 of the Republicans. On the Senate side, the upper house is currently sharply divided, with Democrats only holding the lead with the voice of Vice President Kamala Harris.
A situation that should change on Tuesday, according to the latest polls, but which continues to witness a deeply divided nation.
According to the specialized site FiveThrirthyEight, which adds a multitude of polls to give the clearest picture, the House of Representatives could well fall on the Republican side on Tuesday night. Specifically, Donald Trump’s party has an 84% chance of winning the lower house of Congress against the Democrats.
The core issue of inflation
An unfavorable situation for Joe Biden, while many observers had estimated this summer that the Supreme Court’s decision to end the federal right to abortion was electorally favorable to the Democrats.
But in the face of runaway inflation and rising crime, Republicans have gradually caught up, seen as more serious on these matters.
Likewise, midterm elections are most of the time unfavorable to the party of the tenant of the White House. During the 2018 midterm elections, Donald Trump had thus lost his majority in the House.
According to a survey published on November 6 by the Washington Post and ABC, it’s the Republicans who take the lead on day-to-day issues. According to this same survey, 49% of those surveyed indicate that they will vote for a Republican candidate for the chamber, compared to 48% for a Democratic candidate.
Democratic uncertainty
And as American precedent has shown, to retain a majority, a party must show a clear lead in opinion polls before the election.
In 2018, when they managed to unseat the Republicans, Joe Biden’s party led Donald Trump’s by 7 points in the polls.
Another factor working against the Democrats: Republican voters say they are 80% more certain of their choice than Democratic voters, who are only 74% certain of their choice, according to the U.S. poll. Washington Post and ABC.
A neck-to-neck senatorial election
For the Senate, the situation is tighter. All polls indicate that Republicans and Democrats are head to head, with only four truly competitive seats, that is, for which the result is totally uncertain.
FiveThirthyEight’s latest models bode well for a very close election, with a slim Republican lead of 59%.
The senatorial election in Pennsylvania will be subject to particular scrutiny. He pits John Fetterman, a Democratic candidate weakened by a recent stroke, against the famed Republican doctor Mehmet Oz.
As for the elections to appoint governors, which take place on Tuesday in 36 states, they should bring surprises. As FiveThirtyEight points out, Massachusetts and Maryland definitely must fall to the Democrats. As for the Republicans, they could win in Nevada, Wisconsin and even Oregon, a state normally bought by Democrats.
Source: BFM TV
