You can win a war militarily and expose yourself politically. On Tuesday night, a missile exploded in Poland, killing two farmers. After a few hours of uncertainty, a consensus quickly emerged on the world stage, around an accidental shot by Ukrainian troops, then subjected to a deluge of fire unleashed by Russia. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is still struggling to admit it. A ballistic mistake and a possible lack of communication that weaken its position internationally, despite the fact that Ukraine has never seemed so well positioned on the front, where it has just recaptured Kherson from the Russians.
Today, in fact, his partners no longer hesitate to push him to negotiate peace with Russia and therefore lower his hopes.
Isolation
To understand this new impatience on the part of the West, one must go back to the relative isolation of Volodymyr Zelensky after the explosion that put Poland in mourning on Tuesday. NATO, the United States, the Europeans, and even the first Polish interested parties – President Andrzej Duda considering the hypothesis of a Ukrainian accident “highly probable” – all favored this Wednesday the track of a missile projected by the anti-aircraft system of the country attacked. However, without clearing the aggressor. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility” for the tragedy, in particular, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Thursday.
For a long time, Kyiv did not move. The ship was Russian. At least that is what the Ukrainian president reaffirmed this Wednesday during a televised meeting in his country. “I have no doubt that it was not our missile, and it was not our missile attack,” he said, adding: “I think it was Russian.”
This Thursday, a press release from the Ukrainian presidency qualified this attitude, saving heat and cold. Volodymyr Zelensky first acknowledges:
“I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world doesn’t know.” But he continues: “But I’m sure it was a Russian missile, I’m sure we fired from air defense systems.”
This stubbornness is difficult to understand according to observers. “I thought the narrative that would follow would be to say, ‘You see our urgent need for an anti-missile system that works at all levels.’ Instead, Volodymyr Zelensky got caught up in a hilarious back-and-forth between ‘there’s no question’ and ‘I think he’s Russian’ without any proof,” said BFMTV international columnist Patrick Sauce.
Draconian Conditions
However, we had already noted a slight wavering in Volodymyr Zelensky’s certainties when, on Wednesday, he demanded “access to all data” and to the “site” of the explosion for Ukrainian investigators. The sign of a desire to meet the conclusions to come. In any case, this is how Vadym Omelchenko, the Ukrainian ambassador in Paris, saw it on Thursday.
“The investigation must continue its course. We have our convictions but we are open to the truth,” he said on BFMTV.
This minimal opening to the procedure, accompanied by a delay, is not enough in the eyes of Ukraine’s allies. And the unwavering support of Westerners for the latter no longer seems so unconditional. The desire to see Volodymyr Zelensky enter into talks with Russia is great. Peace negotiations with the enemy that the conditions sine qua non established by the Ukrainian president make them untenable for the time being.
“President Zelensky addressed the G20, announced that Ukraine was ready for negotiations but announced ten conditions before starting them,” recalled Ambassador Vadym Omelchenko, referring to the need for guarantees against “nuclear dangers” and “hunger.” that of obtaining the “punishment of war criminals” and financial “compensation” for his country. Above all, the diplomat argued: “The tactical conditions are that Russia must abandon all occupied territories.”
Unrealistic
In other words, Ukraine intends not only to recapture the entire south and east of the country, but even to push its advantage to the point of driving the Russians out of a Crimea they annexed at the end of 2014-2015. However, the goal seems unrealistic for Ukraine’s partners. During a press conference on Wednesday, General Mark Milley, Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces, put it bluntly, despite obvious embarrassment:
“The military task of driving the Russians out of the Ukraine is a difficult task. And it won’t happen in the next few weeks, unless the Russian military completely collapses, which is unlikely. So, in terms of probability, that of a definite Ukrainian victory as the expulsion of the Russians from all of Ukraine, including what they define as Crimea, is not high, militarily.”
“But there may be a political solution, where the withdrawal of the Russians is possible,” the officer opened.
This Thursday, Patrick Sauce deciphered the caution of the US: “So message to Ukraine: ‘It may be necessary to think about a somewhat planned Ukraine and lower its claims.'” The voice of the United States, the first world power and the first ally of the Ukrainians, is not only heard, but also echoes a lot, as the G20 meeting in Bali this week demonstrated.
“The Indonesians who organized the G20 said: ‘The war must end’, not ‘Ukraine must win’. The African countries said: ‘We are hungry, the war must end. ‘Stop'”, stressed Patrick Sauce.
How far away, in the middle of this concert, this speech by Emmanuel Macron: “Peace is possible, the only one that they (the Ukrainians, editor’s note) will decide when they decide.” It was at a peace summit held in Rome on October 23. Three weeks ago.
Source: BFM TV
