The celebration of the bicentenary of Brazilian independence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Sept. 7, will be used as an electoral political “marketing” piece for the president, Jair Bolsonaro, social researcher Carolina Botelho told Lusa.
Speaking about the aerial presentation of the Esquadrilha da Fumaça, the Naval Parade and the Army Exhibition on the 7th on Copacabana Beach, at the request of Bolsonaro and along with an initiative in favor of his re-election, Carolina Botelho evaluated that the celebration of the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence to Portugal, rather than marking a citizenship act of Brazilians, will inevitably be associated with the president’s election campaign.
“That’s his big target. His strategy [Bolsonaro] it’s in the direction of electoral action (…) It’s just another piece of political ‘marketing’ aimed at the electoral period,” said the researcher from the Laboratory of Election Studies, Political Communication and Public Opinion at Rio State University. de Janeiro, January (Doxa/Iesp/UERJ).
Carolina Botelho also explained that the events that the Brazilian head of state has planned in Rio de Janeiro show his adherence to the strategy of talking to his audience, which has become increasingly cohesive, but also more limited.
“He [Bolsonaro] doesn’t feel like talking to other groups so this is another part of their campaign that they have used. Didn’t abandon the strategy of keeping this group [de apoiantes] always united,” he emphasized.
However, the political use of a civil date that concerns all Brazilians, not just supporters of the current president, may not have the desired effect and alienate voters if the head of state repeats a radical speech used on the same date in the year. the past, when Bolsonaro stated that he would no longer respect the judicial decisions of a member of the Federal Supreme Court, Judge Alexandre de Moraes, whom he referred to as a “rogue”.
“If it has any effect at this point, with the current phase [da campanha] and the evidence from the polls we observed will have a negative effect. [A mensagem] don’t go beyond the bubble [grupo de apoiantes] him,” emphasized the analyst.
“In the other groups [de eleitores]whether it be undecided or those who somehow voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 but are very unmotivated, he will not win a vote,” he stressed.
Carolina Botelho explained that the election polls on the Brazilian presidential election, held in October, have shown that the main groups of voters have shifted around two names: Luis Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro.
However, the social researcher evaluated that “those who have already voted for Bolsonaro and are now undecided or in some sense already convinced that they will not vote for him again are leaving precisely because of radicalism”.
“The effect of this act [no dia da independência]I don’t see it as something in which he [esteja] pop the bubble [obtendo novos apoios] I see him increasingly moving away from a minimally moderate electorate,” he added.
The researcher also believed that the presence of the armed forces in an act to be used in the campaign indicates that part of the army supports Bolsonaro, but the percentage of this group is unknown.
“There is a certain condescension and a certain very providential closing of eyes on the part of the armed forces regarding the radical behavior of the president,” the analyst stressed.
Carolina Botelho concluded by warning that the bicentennial events that the independence party and military are seeking to associate with Jair Bolsonaro show the world that the Brazilian ruler is “bumbling institutional rules to serve his own public” and that, rather than violence use indicates that it is becoming increasingly isolated.
Source: DN
