Ukraine had just received the largest cruise missile attack since the beginning of the war, in the depths of a pattern that has focused mainly on energy infrastructure – millions of Ukrainians and Moldovans were groping in the dark – when an explosion in Przewodów became known. in eastern Poland, killing two people. The government led by Mateusz Morawiecki had an emergency meeting, as did the National Security Council, and while Polish authorities maintained contact with NATO, the suspicion that a missile had been fired into Atlantic Alliance territory via Russia was initially raised by a number of countries , including Ukraine, almost as a matter of course.
The reality – or so the preliminary data indicate – rather indicates that it was a projectile fired by the Ukrainian armed forces to bring down a Russian missile. Despite the hasty interpretation of the incident, Kiev insists that it was the Russians who first isolated President Volodymyr Zelensky while downplaying the consequences of the attack on Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president, who hours earlier had addressed G20 leaders in Bali, Indonesia with his ten-point vision for a peace process, responded in his daily video message shortly after the explosion in Poland by asking for “action” in response. to the alleged attack on Poland. “What we warned about a long time ago has happened. Terror is not limited to our country borders. It has already spread to the territory of Moldova. And today [anteontem], Russian missiles hit Poland, the territory of our friendly country. Poland, the Baltic states… It’s only a matter of time before the Russian terror continues. We must put the terrorist in his place!”
Meanwhile, messages from Estonian and Lithuanian leaders added warmth to a feverish temperature — reminding Poles that they would defend every inch of NATO territory — fueled by television and social media commentators and statements by other members of the Ukrainian government.
Moscow quickly responded by accusing the Poles of “deliberate provocation”. He later emphasized: “Photographs of the wreckage were unequivocally identified by Russian military experts as fragments of an anti-aircraft guided missile from a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system”; and the Defense Ministry said the missiles fired were aimed at targets “at a distance of not less than 35 kilometers from the Polish-Ukrainian border”. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recalled the case of the MH17 plane – shot down by pro-Russians – to say that “no one should believe Russian propaganda” and said Moscow was “propagating a conspiracy theory” to defraud Ukraine to blame.
After tentative responses from NATO and the Pentagon, it was the US president himself who brought the water to the boil and said it was “unlikely” that it was a missile launched by Russia: “There is a lot of information to dispute that. ” Joe Biden’s words were heard after an emergency meeting of G7 and NATO leaders present in Bali, which followed consultations with his counterpart Andrzej Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The Norwegian chaired an emergency meeting with the Atlantic Alliance ambassadors and eventually reiterated what Biden had said, taking the opportunity to recall Russia’s role. “We have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack, nor that Russia is preparing offensive actions against NATO,” he said. “But let’s be clear: this is not Ukraine’s responsibility. Russia bears the responsibility for continuing its illegal war against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.
In turn, the Polish president and head of government said there was no evidence that the explosion that killed two people was of Russian origin, despite Duda saying the missile will be a Soviet-made S-300. Morawiecki, for his part, said Warsaw would not invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for inter-allied consultations on the territorial integrity or security of either party.
Faced with this concurrence of views in the west, Kiev responded by requesting Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov to be part of the investigative teams for “a joint investigation of the incident” and showed availability to “examine the evidence of the Russian tracks”. The Ukrainian president defended his country’s right to be part of the investigation, while reiterating his version. “I have no doubt it was not our missile,” he said, adding that his position is supported by reports from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Air Force command.
Later, in his daily video message, Zelensky again asked for Kiev’s participation in the investigation: “The Ukrainian point of view is very transparent: we strive to find out all the details, all the facts. Therefore, we need our experts to participate in the work of the international investigation and to have access to all data available to our partners and the blast site.” Zelensky also said he shares the information he has with partners, but for now the Ukrainian president is talking to himself.
“Unlikely” military victory
On the day that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin chaired another Ramstein meeting, that is, of US allies and partners for obtaining military aid for Ukraine, the US Chief of Staff accused Russia of resorting to a ” terror campaign to beat the mind” of the Ukrainians, after they failed to achieve the strategic, operational and tactical objectives of the invasion.
However, for General Mark Milley, “the likelihood of a Ukrainian military victory, defined as the expulsion of the Russians from all over Ukraine, is not great any time soon”. So, according to the military, if hostilities slow down due to conditions on the ground, there could be a political solution, “or at least the start of talks to kickstart a political solution.”
The invasion in eight minutes
Russia was involved in a proxy war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, following the Ukrainian uprising that ended with the flight of Kremlin ally Yanukovych and subsequent annexation of Crimea. The conflict took on a new dimension on February 24 with a full-scale invasion, despite not declaring war.
special military operation
Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” to “denazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine, while demanding guarantees that the country would never join NATO. Soon after, rocket attacks began in several cities and the beginning of the land invasion, with a military column of more than 60 kilometers from Belarus towards Kiev. Against the expectations of many observers, Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to leave the capital, where he leads the resistance.
Kherson falls, Kiev and Kharkiv resist
Russian troops achieve their great victory: the capture of Kherson, the only regional capital to fall as a result of the invasion. In contrast, the Russian troops – which planned to take the capital within days – withdraw the Special Forces that had landed in Kiev and after a month of fighting, died in the vicinity. They suffer the same fate in the second largest city, Kharkiv (Kharkow).
War crimes in Bucha
In early April, the liberation of Bucha and other towns northwest of Kiev exposed the war crimes committed by invading forces. Moscow says Bucha’s images are fabricated, but Amnesty International concludes there were “intentional civilian deaths”. In September, an independent UN commission finds war crimes, while the International Criminal Court says it will investigate, even though Russia is not a member of the deal. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office speaks of 34,000 possible war crimes.
fall of Mariupol
After months of bombing that destroyed the city and weeks of siege by the Ukrainian army at the Azovstal steel mill, Russia takes the strategic city of Mariupol and takes hundreds of prisoners. More than 50 soldiers from the Azov battalion will eventually die in July in a newly opened prison in Olenivka, as Kiev and Moscow exchanged allegations over the deadly blast. In Donbass, Ukraine loses the battle for Severodonetsk and neighboring Lysychansk.
counteroffensive
Armed by NATO nations with advanced artillery capable of damaging precise targets, Ukraine announces its counter-offensive in Kherson, hitting warehouses, command centers, airfields and other military and logistical targets, while surprising Moscow in September with the liberation of the region from Kharkov and parts of Lugansk. In response, Putin ordered a mobilization of 300,000 reservists, leading to an exodus of Russians of military age.
Referendums and annexations
Between September 23 and 27, the Kremlin-installed authorities in the Ukrainian regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizia held fraudulent referenda, the results of which, unsurprisingly, favored Russian annexation. Days later, the Russian leader presides over a ceremony at the Kremlin formalizing the annexation, which will only be recognized by North Korea.
Kherson withdrawal
After a withdrawal that had begun weeks before with Russian officials and ended with Ukrainian civilians — forced to act as a shield for the army, according to Kiev — Moscow announced the departure of the capital, Kherson, to Russia’s left bank on November 9. the region. The withdrawal ended the next day and a few hours later the Ukrainian army arrived in the city, which the Russians left without water or electricity.
Source: DN
