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Will Ukraine win the drone war?

For the second consecutive day, explosions were recorded at a Russian air base, this time in a region close to the border with Ukraine, raising doubts about Russia’s defense capability in the face of what it said were attacks by Ukrainian drones. Kiev admits no responsibility, but after Monday’s attacks on bases more than 600 kilometers from the frontline, eyes are on the devices with an alleged range of 1,000 kilometers it will develop. On the other side of this drone war, Moscow has not used its (Iran-made) suicide bombers for weeks, with Ukraine saying they are not prepared to fly in the cold.

After the attacks on the bases of Engels-2 and Dyagilevo, the Russian authorities claimed that the Ukrainians used modified “Soviet” drones – supposedly Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh or Tupolev Tu-143 Reys for reconnaissance, originally produced in the 1970s. already used in other attacks in July, closer to the border.

This version was to be fitted with explosives, with the Russians saying they had intercepted the drones, the debris of which still hit two planes and caused the deaths of three soldiers. Yesterday’s attack hit a fuel tank at a base in the Kursk region (about 280 kilometers from Ukraine). Governor Roman Starovoyot said there were no casualties.

Despite the Russians claiming the drones are of “Soviet” manufacture, Ukrainian arms company Ukroboronprom said on Sunday it had successfully completed tests on its new combat drones with a range of 1,000 kilometers – it is unknown if these will be ready yet and will be used.

On Oct. 17, the company had released images to Facebook of the body of this new drone, claiming it weighed 75 pounds outside of that range. More than a month later, on 24 November, it indicated that it would conduct flight tests, following instructions from the Chief of Staff. The shared image read “az vozdam,” which means “I will answer.” The final stage of testing would be the ability to evade Russian defense systems, namely electronic warfare jamming environments.

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting of his Security Council to discuss the latest attacks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was taking “necessary” measures to protect the country from Ukrainian attacks, warning Kiev’s “danger factor” to continue these “terrorist attacks”.

Since the invasion, both sides have used drones, both for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes, and for strikes. A song was even written in honor of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, who managed to destroy Russian targets early in the war – but they revealed their problems, which were that they were noisy, slow and easy to detect.

Cold crashes Russian drones

On the Moscow side, Iranian-made Shahed 136 drones—renamed Geran-2 by the Russians—have been used. Especially since October, they have been used in several attacks, namely against the capital and against electrical infrastructure. They have a range of 2,500 kilometers and are usually launched in groups of five, like a swarm.

Russia and Iran initially denied any arms cooperation, and Tehran later admitted to sending weapons to Moscow before the war broke out. The drones are already being assembled on Russian territory, where they are also being renamed to hide their true origin.

But in recent weeks they have not been used. According to a Ukrainian official, the cold prevents them from functioning. Iranian drones will be made of plastic and other materials that are not suitable for ice. They will not have been used since November 17, the first day it snowed in Ukraine this year, according to the same source.

Zelensky visits the front in Donbass

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was yesterday in the town of Sloviansk, in Donetsk, about 40 km from Bakhmut, the main battlefield in the Donbass region. In front of the sign with the name of the city, he took the opportunity to record a message to social networks in honor of Ukrainian soldiers, on what was Armed Forces Day. “Eastern Ukraine is the most difficult front right now,” Zelensky said, saying he was “honoured” to be there with Ukrainian troops in Donbass. The president said he hopes to celebrate this day “under a peaceful sky” in Kiev next year. The Russians have controlled part of Donetsk and Lugansk regions since 2014, with Sloviansk falling into Russian hands at that point, until it was recovered by the Ukrainians.

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Author: Susan Salvador

Source: DN

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