Russia and Ukraine are still far from meeting the conditions for peace negotiations that would allow for a ceasefire in the conflict, but Western countries should push for a diplomatic solution, according to the International Crisis Group.
Analysts report this in a new report thinktank argue that Kiev currently has a military advantage over Russia, but points out that this does not mean there are guarantees of a victory, let alone a quick one.
“Ukraine still sometimes struggles to ensure that all its troops are adequately equipped, with territorial defense elements and national guard units regularly reporting material shortages, especially winter equipment,” the report explains, adding that these difficulties are also felt on the Russian side.
In fact, analysts say that “the Kremlin seems determined to maintain partial mobilization to contain new Ukrainian offensives” rather than seeking territorial gains, especially as a winter approaches in which “soaked terrain and mud will kill the battle.” will complicate”. military actions”.
The continuation of diplomatic efforts advocated by analysts is relevant when the risk of nuclear war, “while still low, is quite real and must be managed carefully”.
“Yet it is not a convincing argument to allow Russia to achieve its objectives through aggression and nuclear threat,” the document explains, which suggests that those diplomatic efforts should be “linked to reality.”
“Both Kyiv and the West should continue to explore areas where cooperation can mitigate the effects of the war, for example prisoner exchanges, efforts to support and expand the agreement providing safe passage for Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea, and solutions to manage the nuclear safety of the Zaporijia plant,” defend the analysts.
The document concludes that “calls for peace talks when the sides still believe they have more to gain on the battlefield is a fruitless effort,” with Kyiv believing it can regain annexed territories and Moscow relying on its military might to keep its territory from expand Russia. influence in Ukraine.
“For similar reasons, a ceasefire is not in the immediate plans. With both sides still believing they can pave the way to a better position, each would demand a ceasefire that the other would find untenable” , the analysts explain.
On the other hand, the thinktank believes that the likelihood of a new leadership in Russia that will end the conflict is remote.
“The Russian state is very powerful and the opposition is very weak, and the means to put pressure on the Kremlin are scarce,” the report said, advising Western countries to wait for a better opportunity to negotiate effectively. Search. and resulting peace agreements.
The military offensive launched by Russia in Ukraine on February 24 has already led to the flight of more than 13 million people – more than six million internally displaced people and more than 7.7 million to European countries – according to the latest UN data. to land. which classifies this refugee crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945).
The Russian invasion – justified by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, with the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russian security – was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending arms to Ukraine and impose political and economic sanctions on Russia.
Source: DN
