The Ukrainians have recently made significant advances on the Russian front in the east of the country. The recapture of Kupyansk in particular shows the evolution of the balance of power at the front, which remained frozen for much of the summer.
Already at the end of August, the Kyiv forces launched an offensive in the south of the country, in the Kherson region. This city is located a few dozen kilometers from the territory of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. This division of the front could favor Ukraine.
In total, the army claims to have seized, this Sunday morning, more than 3,000 km² from Russian forces. “In Kharkiv, we are 50 kilometers from the border,” the army chief said in a statement. On the BFMTV maps, we can see the target regions of the Ukrainian counter-offensives. Given the rapidly changing front lines, they may already be out of date.
“What the Ukrainians are trying to play is dislocation. At the end of August they launched an offensive in the south, which in the end was not extraordinary […]. In reality, it allowed them to bring back a large part of the Russian forces, and when they moved they would attack towards the north”, Guillaume Ancel, a former French Army officer, analyzes on our antenna.
The Ukrainians, in turn, expose themselves to a counteroffensive
This tactic could allow the soldiers of the Ukrainian army to continue advancing. “If they manage to penetrate the Russian forces, the Russians cannot launch a counteroffensive, because they cannot use their artillery,” adds Guillaume Ancel.
The Ukrainian army claims to have seized Kupyansk and is in the process of retaking Izium, two important railway junctions at the gates of Donbass. But we must be cautious according to Guillaume Ancel: “[Le retrait des troupes russes] give the Ukrainians a victory, but they may have to face an artillery ten times more powerful than theirs,” warns Guillaume Ancel.
We should also expect a reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This defeat could tarnish his image of authority and the success shown by his “special operation”.
“Inevitably, he will try something,” says the former officer. According to him, the Russian president could try to use a “very powerful weapon” to try to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and disrupt the Ukrainian rule.
Source: BFM TV
