US President Joe Biden arrives at this week’s State of the Union address following the surprise result of the latest midterm elections but with doubts about the possibility and support for his re-candidacy in 2024, analysts said.
When Biden is expected to use the days following the State of the Union speech, next Tuesday night (Wednesday morning in Portugal), to announce his reelection, polls released in recent days indicate that the president’s popularity is waning, with many favoring a new tenant in the White House, even if he is from the same party.
Several analysts agree Biden has a few months to make a decision and some are urging his margin for progress to be narrowed when his name appears to be implicated in an investigation into the unauthorized possession of classified documents from the time when he was Barack Obama’s vice president. and when Republican opposition in the House of Representatives gains tone.
Louise Drake, an American political analyst who works at the University of Sussex, in the United Kingdom, cites a recent study by The Economist and YouGov magazine, which reveals that 58% of voters do not want Biden to run again to argue that the president is losing arguments to justify starting the traditional first round of fundraising for a 2026 election race.
“Essentially he has six months to present his candidacy. Politicians have an aversion to emptiness. If he doesn’t do it by the end of the summer, there will be no shortage of people raising their hands and proposing to trying to block the Republican restoration of the White House,” Drake told Lusa.
For Robert Reich, professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, there are still many open variables and some of them count in his favor and may even be the subject of a political approach in the State of the Union address.
“However, Biden’s achievements in economics, climate, infrastructure and defense of democracy have been significant — much more important than his mistakes in his withdrawal from Afghanistan or the fact that he accidentally kept some classified documents,” Reich argues.
In any case, within the Democratic Party and in the halls of Congress where Biden will read the State of the Union address, the topic of conversation is already beginning to become the alternative name for Biden if he does not want to go head-to-head with the Republicans. , especially if he feels he has little physical capacity as he would end his second term at the age of 86.
Hopes that the Vice President, Kamala Harris, will move towards a continuity candidacy seem increasingly distant as it fails to rise from the suffering indicators of popularity.
“Kamala left the race practically at the beginning of her mandate, when she was unable to assert herself politically in various areas of her tutelage,” defends Louise Drake, recalling that there is no shortage of figures in the party, even though they still do. not have much fame..
And Reich recalls that hardly anyone had heard of Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter before they ran for office and won the presidential election.
Analysts believe Biden should take advantage of the State of the Union address to make a very positive assessment of his first phase in office, capitalizing on the momentum of the surprise (though not entirely positive) midterm election result last November. and preparing the ground to prevent the Republicans’ political growth.
Fear that Donald Trump (who has already announced his 2026 presidential candidacy) could return to the White House has been the main argument among Democrats for mobilizing the party, but the uncertainty of Biden’s plans makes positioning plans coolly political.
“Biden has the trump card of having already defeated Trump. And being able to promise that he can do it again,” concludes Reich.
Source: DN
