Ukraine this Thursday signaled a “maximum escalation” in the eastern region of Lugansk less than two weeks before the first anniversary of the Russian military invasion, which could signal the start of a Moscow offensive in the Donbass region.
“The number of attacks by the occupiers has increased significantly,” the head of the regional military administration, Serhii Haidai, told Telegram, noting that “the Russians are advancing towards the Kreminna”, although they have not achieved “significant successes”.
The US Institute for War Studies (ISW) found that “Russian forces regained the initiative in Ukraine and began their major offensive in Lugansk”.
“The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line west of Lugansk has increased significantly over the past week”ISW adds, adding that the Russian military made “marginal advances along the border between Kharkov and the Lugansk region.”
North American analysts pointed out that the presence in this zone of “at least three major Russian divisions in offensive operations” suggests “that the Russian offensive has begun”.
Haidai, who previously described the situation as “maximum escalation”, noted that the Russian military also continues to bomb places in the area, including Makiivka, which were “almost completely destroyed”.
In recent months, Russian forces have focused their efforts on the Ukrainian regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, annexed by Russia in September 2022, particularly around the cities of Vuhledar and Bakhmut.
The capture of these cities, Bakhmut in particular, would open the way for the Russians to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the main Ukrainian strongholds in Donbass.
Kiev believes that the Russians will focus on full control of Lugansk and Donetsk, but may also launch operations in the Zaporijia and Kherson regions, in the south of the country and also annexed by Moscow.
Defense Intelligence Services of Ukraine (DIU) spokesman Andrii Yusov warned on Ukrainian television this Thursday that “the main [russo] it is in fact the east and the Donbass”.
“Other areas can also be affected, but with these attacks [a Rússia] will mainly try to distract and slow down the Ukrainian armed forces” in these areas, he indicated.
According to Yusov, there are currently 300,000 “invaders” in Ukraine, representing “an increase in the number, but not the quality, of the Russian army”.
“The highest quality units and the highest quality weapons [russas] were largely damaged or destroyed on Ukrainian territory in the past year. And it will certainly not be possible to prepare an adequate force of the same level in the short term,” he assured.
It also did not rule out the Russian military considering launching an offensive in northern Ukraine or landing in the south, despite deeming this option “suicidal”.
This Thursday, and as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called for “swift and firm decisions” to stop Russia’s advance at the European Union Leaders’ Summit in Brussels, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited a tank factory in the Siberian region of Omsk.
Medvedev, also a member of the Russian Security Council, pointed out that while the “enemy begs for planes, missiles and tanks abroad”, Russia must “increase the production of various types of weapons, including modern tanks”.
“It is about the production and modernization of thousands of tanks,” he said in a video broadcast by Telegram.
According to the Dutch analysis group Oryx, Russia lost 1,688 tanks in the Ukrainian conflict, of which 1,000 were destroyed by Ukrainian forces, of which 544 were captured, 79 with minor damage, and 65 left behind.
Source: DN
