Geopolitical experiences and reflections: where are we going?

“Without optimism there is no future, without imagination there is no optimism.”
– Victor Angelo

Every text I write represents a huge effort. What the reader reads in five minutes may have taken a day to write. It is necessary to define the messages I want to convey, to be as original as possible, to find the words, to avoid sound collisions and cacophony, to avoid repetitions, to name the different angles without falling into inconsistencies, all this within a space with a number of limited characters. Despite all that big question, the truth is that I write about current affairs happening before our very eyes. Even if I try to leave room for maneuver for the reader to make their own interpretation of what it says, and despite the concern about prognosis, which I think is fundamental in most of my writing, all this work is much more accessible than the future suspect.

Now it seems important to me to write a few lines about the future in this last chapter. Looking ahead after three years of exceptional events, including one marked essentially by undeniable criminal conduct, under international law, by the Supreme Leader of the Russian Federation, is a risk. I recognize it. We live in times of great and inscrutable questions, in which anything can happen, including a new war of great magnitude. But one cannot think about the dynamics of international politics without adding some prediction lines about the future we are building, without answering the question “where are we going?”. In January [do ano passado] my prediction was that we were in for a year of populism growth, that 2022 would be a favorable period for the rise of political radicalism. So it was, but not alone. The decisive surprise came from Moscow. And Moscow in 2023 will continue to mark the evolution of the international scene.

A political leader of the crop to which Vladimir Putin belongs has only one stubbornness: to stay in power, with determination, nails and teeth, repression, assassinations and missiles, until the last moment. This is what the history of the darkest despotisms teaches us. In this way, anything he would decide in the near future, including a declaration of war on any of the countries of the Atlantic Alliance, could only obey that fixation of his. That’s why it’s essential to find a way out that quickly and surprisingly suddenly takes him out of power. The quickest and cheapest solution would be an intramural overhaul of the Kremlin palace. That would be the gamble he would take if he had access to the covert operational resources capable of promoting a democratic and peaceful alternative at the top of the Russian pyramid. The continuation of Vladimir Putin at the helm of the Russian Federation increases the risks of an international conflagration. It is certainly one of the greatest threats to democratic Europe and other democracies. Putin could easily conclude that he has no choice but to extend the war beyond Ukraine.

At the same time, I consider Western countries’ hostility to Xi Jinping’s China a mistake. And vice versa. China does not have the same ambition to tear Europe apart as in the Kremlin. China and the West need each other. They are essentially complementary economies. Diplomatic contacts should therefore focus on cooperation and base this cooperation on the mercantilist interests of both sides. Stability in the international order and peace are important to both sides and depend on this balance and mutual respect for the trade rules established between the parties and by the World Trade Organization. This position does not mean forgetting the human rights abuses in China, the repeated threats against Taiwan, the increasing imposition in poorer countries, where Chinese money can buy everything from the economy to political leaders, and the repeated espionage attempts by the authorities. of Beijing against our political and economic interests. These unacceptable practices are met with strong diplomacy. This means a policy that can not only show Xi Jinping and his people that military annexations today cannot be a continuation of diplomacy by other means, and that they will not be tolerated, but also can damage the image of the country and its leaders. shame on the international stage. It also responds by stepping up solidarity with Chinese citizens fighting internally for the opening up of the regime.

My position on the future of China is made clear in this volume. It is a fact that it is a superpower and an extremely entrepreneurial society. These are the positive dimensions of the equation. However, the country has two major weaknesses: the size of its population, especially the urban population, which sooner or later will become aware of the explosive political power that exists in the crowds living in cities; and the absence of a democratic political system, at the highest level, but also at all other levels of iron control over public life and the organization of society. The inability to discuss options of common interest, whether national, regional or local, will ultimately lead to the highlighting of totally wrong decisions, exacerbating social tensions. All this could in the long run weaken national unity and undermine the positive role it could play in the multilateral arena.

Climate issues, the 2030 Development Agenda, regional conflicts and extremism, migrations and refugees, respect for human dignity and equality between men and women will have to regain the primacy they should have when discussing the future of our planet. Those are the outlines of the community of nations we want to build. And with its construction, the debate on the reform of the political system of the United Nations should be revived, that is, the imperative need to reform the Security Council, its composition, authority and way of functioning. These issues should be at the center of the international agenda in 2023 and beyond. It is up to the political leaders to bring them back while reorganizing a new agenda of peace and solidarity between peoples.

Finally, regarding our specific concerns as members of the European Union, several texts reiterate the importance of consolidating European autonomy from other blocs, namely the North American. Europe will never be fully self-sufficient, for several reasons, including our dependence on raw materials and the economic model that underpins Europe’s prosperity, one based on greater international trade and cooperation. Yet it will be able to create a high degree of independence if it diversifies its alliances and sources of supply and if it continues to push for scientific and technological knowledge. And if we do not forget that autonomy is also based on the security of each citizen, on respect for his dignity and on the proper functioning of legal systems and the creation of social opportunities.