The US secret services have long known about Russia’s plans, they just did not know the date. After the Americans warned of the possible start of the invasion on February 16, 2002, the Kremlin, through its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, responded with the charge of “Western hysteria”, and Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova even ventured adheres to the arts of irony by asking for the “invasion calendar” to plan vacations.
Events belied the Russian narrative. Days later, leader Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions, seceding from its sponsorship since 2014. And in the early hours of the 24th, the president addressed the Russians to announce the “special military operation” with the aim of “demilitarizing” and “denazifying” Ukraine.
Since then, the war has claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties, including dead and injured, eight million refugees outside the country, and the world at large fears the effects of an uncontrolled spiral, from the disruption of grain and fertilizer supplies to the nuclear threat. Many were the protagonists, from the halls of power to the front lines. Here are three – and a fourth that could become one.
Vladimir Putin
The Anglo-American poet WH Auden once said that “man is a history-making creature who cannot repeat or leave behind his past”. This is the drama of the Ukrainians, who have been trying for years to close the door to the 20th century, but are unable to do so because of the leader of the neighboring country, who sees himself in the role of Stalin at the head of the Red Army against the Nazis. “To achieve their goals, leading NATO countries support extremist nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, who in turn will never forgive criminals and residents of Sevastopol for choosing reunification with Russia,” Putin said when launching the invasion . in allusion to the referendum forged in Crimea. “They will, of course, crawl to Crimea, like Donbass, to kill, like gangs of Ukrainian nationalists, Hitler’s accomplices, defenseless people killed during the Great Patriotic War.”
Fueled by what he sees as a “matter of life and death” – NATO’s presence in post-Soviet territory and the defunct Warsaw Pact – and allegations of “genocide” in eastern Ukraine, the man in power shows in Russia no signs of a change of course. This despite the human disaster, a consequence of the failure of the military strategy of the second largest army in the world. As proof of this, on Wednesday he repeated to thousands of Muscovites that the army defends Russian “historic lands”, and the next day he sent a message to his opponents, announcing the entry into operation of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Arriving in the presidency in 2019 by an overwhelming majority in elections – and not by a coup, as Moscow accused – the man who made a career as a comedian had in his program to reach a peace deal with Russia. A single meeting with Putin, at the Elysée, resulted in a brief detente, with an agreement for gas transit and prisoner exchange, in December of that year. But in the months that followed, negotiations came to naught and in early 2021 Zelensky was under no illusions about Putin and vice versa. “What is the point of a meeting with Zelensky if he completely hands over the country to foreign management?” the Russian wondered halfway through that year, pointing to Washington, Berlin and Paris. “What’s there to talk about?”.
Nevertheless, in the first days of the invasion, the Ukrainian president was represented in Belarus and Turkey, where negotiations took place. But just as he refused to flee Kiev, so now he refuses to capitulate or give way to Moscow. “He is leading the country to victory that he personally and sincerely believes in, and it is take it or leave it. There is nothing in between for him,” Ukraine’s diplomatic chief Dmytro Kuleba told the press. The Washington Post.
This leadership is based on a recognized ability to communicate. Every day he publishes videos to keep the population motivated, while he receives international leaders or addresses parliaments, summits or universities. Every day, Zelensky or his team pressure their partners to give their country “a reinforced sling” to defeat Goliath, so he is not currently taking into account their ten-point plan. And after announcing the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in September, Zelensky refuses to address the former KGB agent again.
Joe Biden
Ukraine and Georgia hoped to join the Atlantic Alliance in 2008, but Germany and France stood in the way. The rest is history: that same year, Russian troops invaded Georgia and imposed the “independence” of two pro-Russian regions, and in 2014 the same manual was used on Ukrainian territory, albeit without the presence of military insignia. The then-Vice President took up the Ukraine file and unsuccessfully tried to convince Barack Obama to provide “lethal aid,” although he did bring military training to Kiev.
Successor to Donald Trump – condemned by the House of Representatives for making aid contingent on Zelensky in exchange for information targeting Biden – the 80-year-old Democrat has become the Ukrainian leader’s main supporter, though he doesn’t always do his will . It rejected the proposal for a no-fly zone, to transfer Polish MiG aircraft, or to send ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, or more recently the F-16 fighters, but it accepted to to raise stakes, for example with the transfer of the Patriot air defense system or the sending of (for now symbolic) Abrams tanks, in a balance that neither Kiev’s most ardent supporters nor its critics understand.
Visiting the Ukrainian capital on Monday, the US president, who had funneled $50 billion to the invaded country in a year, vowed not to let Russia win. Unsurprisingly, however, he sees himself in the words of the Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, who sees no military solution and as such believes that the parties to the conflict will eventually negotiate.
Xi Jinping
Allies, more out of tactical interest than ideological alignment, Moscow and Beijing have strengthened relations in recent months. China did not condemn the Russian invasion, saying it supported concerns over Russia’s security while calling for peace. In recent days, it has been revealed that Xi Jinping will present a peace proposal taking into account the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and security.
Coincidence or not, in recent days the US and NATO have been pressuring China not to provide arms and technology to Russia.
Source: DN
