The world must halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, warns a new report from the UN Climate Change Agency.
Held after a week of meetings in the Alpine town of Interlaken (Switzerland), this 6th report summarizes all the other five produced by experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2015, noting that in the decade of 2011-2020 the planet warmed 1.1 degrees from pre-industrial levels (1850-1900)
“Humanity is walking on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, adding that the world “needs climate action on all fronts – everything, everywhere, at the same time,” in a reference to the most award-winning film at the last Oscars, “Everything Everywhere at the Same Time”.
The IPCC’s synthesis of nine years of work is a reminder of the need for humanity to act radically during this crucial decade to ensure “a viable future”.
This summary report, which follows on from 2014 and will have no equivalent in this decade, is “a survival guide for humanity,” Guterres underlined.
Speaking to Agence France-Presse, IPCC President Hoesung Lee said the report “is a message of hope”.
“We have the knowledge, technology, tools, financial resources and everything we need to overcome the climate problems we’ve identified,” he said, as all that’s missing is “a strong political will to solve them.”
If the necessary steps are not taken, global warming will reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial values in the years 2030-2035, the IPCC warned in the report, adding that the projection is valid in almost all emission scenarios of short-term greenhouse gases (GHG), given their accumulation over the last century and a half.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing fossil fuel-based infrastructures would be sufficient on their own to reach 1.5°C, if they were not equipped with means to capture CO2.
But “deep, rapid and sustained reductions in emissions (…) would lead to a visible slowdown in global warming in about two decades,” the group of scientists said.
“This synthesis report underscores the urgency of more ambitious action and shows that if we act now, we can still secure a viable future for all,” said Hoesung Lee.
Experts noted in the 2014 report that “for any future level of warming, many climate-related risks are greater than estimated,” based on the observed multiplication of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, and new scientific knowledge.
“The unavoidable rise in sea levels will continue to increase risks to coastal ecosystems, people and infrastructure beyond 2100,” they said.
For her part, climatologist Friederike Otto, co-author of the synthesis, said that “the warmest years on record will be among the coldest in a generation.”
The past eight years have already been the warmest on record globally and Otto’s prediction is correct “regardless of levels of greenhouse gas emissions,” the AFP indicates.
However, experts assured that the economic and social benefits of limiting global warming outweigh the costs of the necessary measures.
“From 2010 to 2019, costs have decreased sustainably for solar energy (85%), wind energy (55%) and lithium batteries (85%),” the summary said.
In addition to the effect on climate, accelerated and sustained efforts would bring “many collateral benefits, namely for air quality and health,” the scientists stressed, who did not hide the price to be paid, as “in the short term, in the long term, actions require high initial investments and potentially radical changes”.
The scientific consensus of the IPCC will form the factual basis for the intense political and economic negotiations in the coming years, starting with the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), scheduled for December in Dubai , which will present an initial assessment of each country’s efforts under the Paris agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and will see hard negotiations over the future of fossil fuels.
One of the talking points at COP28 will also be the “loss and damage” caused by global warming, which disproportionately affects the poorest countries.
“Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed least to climate change are disproportionately affected,” said Aditi Mukherji, one of the authors of the synthesis.
Reducing fuel emissions by half by 2030 is still possible
The environmental association ZERO pointed out on Monday that it is still possible to cut fuel emissions by half by 2030, as the next seven years are “essential to determine the fate” of humanity.
In response to the publication today in Switzerland of the 6th Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ZERO points out that the experts believe that the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5ºC is “difficult, but achievable found. as long as there is “political will”.
In 2015, almost all United Nations member states pledged in Paris to limit global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial values, but “current policies” have led to “a approach of 3°C”.
The “best way” to stop the climate crisis is to eliminate fossil fuels, ZERO recalls, emphasizing that “the solutions to achieve this exist”, namely technological ones.
According to the non-governmental organization, “the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is not 0.5 – the impact would be twice as bad or greater for many risks (access to clean water, loss of biodiversity, increased poverty and immigration, among many others). )”.
“The cost of inaction will be much higher from many different perspectives: be it financial or social and also for governments, businesses and households,” the environmental organization says, adding that the IPCC report “shows the huge benefits of sustainable development , rapid deployment of solar and wind energy and other renewable energy uses, as well as greater energy savings, with vastly reduced costs”.
Also recalling that the “climate effects” are already affecting everyone on the planet, “but not in the same way”, ZERO urges those who “historically polluted much more” to put more effort into the necessary reduction of global emissions of greenhouse gases. “by at least 43% by 2030”.
“The IPCC report rates Europe as the second largest historically emitting region (1850-2019) after North America,” the statement says, warning that “if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, 1.5°C could be reached by 2030-2035.”
“There’s a reason why people talk about a maximum temperature rise of 1.5° Celsius. It’s not a wish, it’s not a buzzword… It’s a goal of scientific survival. Dramatic as it is, the equation is pretty simple : we know the problems and the solutions, what remains is the political will,” said ZERO’s president, Francisco Ferreira, quoted in the communiqué.
With regard to the European Union (EU), the NGO believes that “the European Ecological Pact needs to be more ambitious” and that the bloc should “update” the target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030 to “at least 65% respecting until 1990” to be “compatible with the Paris Agreement”.
ZERO defends that “EU countries should reflect national-scale targets in the ongoing review of their National Energy and Climate Plans (PNEC)”, and warns that, in the case of Portugal, “much better management of energy demand, with an emphasis on measures that effectively reduce emissions in individual road transport, more comfortable and efficient buildings and sustainable investments in renewable energy sources.
“We need the European Union, and Portugal in particular, to be climate leaders and to contribute in a serious and coherent way to bring us out of the many crises we face, with a historic momentum and once and for all to publicly commit to what we all know what needs to be done to avoid even worse consequences: throwing away fossil fuels and protecting people and the planet,” says Francisco Ferreira.
Source: DN
