A hundred years after it was founded, Northern Ireland is no longer a Protestant stronghold, with census data from 2021 showing a majority of Catholics for the first time. The figures, released yesterday, are fueling debate over a possible reunification of Ireland, following the pressures exerted by Brexit and when a new king will sit on the British throne.
The figures show that 45.7% of the population identifies or is educated as Catholic, compared to 43.48% of Protestants or other Christian denominations. Ten years ago, 45.1% said they were Catholic and 48.4% Protestant. The Catholic population is on average younger and has more children, so this gap tends to widen, while more Protestants now identify as having no religion. One in six people say they have no religion, an increase of 10 percentage points from the 2011 census.
“The result of these counts is another clear indication that historical change is taking place on this island”said Sinn Féin Republicans leader Michelle O’Neill, who won the May election and defends the reunification of Ireland. “Drawing political conclusions based on the number of Protestants and Catholics is simplistic and lazy”For his part, Philip Brett, a member of the DUP’s trade unionists, indicated that he would like to continue the relationship with the United Kingdom.
past and future
Founded in 1921, Northern Ireland brought together six of the nine Protestant-majority Ulster counties seeking ties to the United Kingdom. In the south, however, the nationalists would see Ireland’s independence recognized in 1922 – the republic would be formally born in 1949. In the north, tension between the two communities culminated in the three decades of the so-called issues. The conflict opposed trade unionists and nationalists from the late 1960s and ended with the signing of the Good Friday Peace Accords in 1998.
These agreements stipulate that Northern Ireland’s constitutional status can only be changed with popular consent, with the regional leader having to hold a referendum if public opinion changes. However, the agreements do not explain how this change should be assessed.
Religion need not correspond directly to one’s political position in the debate about the future of Northern Ireland, as a Protestant is not automatically a unionist, any more than a Catholic should be a nationalist. However, this is the reading many are doing, aided by other data.
In the 2011 census, a question was first asked about: “national identity”. That year 40% of the population considered themselves only British, 25% said they were all Irish, 21% Northern Irish and 6% said they felt British and Northern Irish. Ten years later, 31.9% say they are only British (8.1 percentage points) and 29.1% identify as only Irish (4.1 points higher). The number of people who call themselves Northern Irish has fallen slightly to 19.8%, while 8% still call themselves British and Northern Irish.
Between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, the number of citizens holding Irish passports increased by 63.5%, from 375,800 to 614,300. In this case, however, Brexit was the main reason. – Northern Ireland voted against the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union, as did Scotland – because many people do not want to lose the benefits of a European passport. The number of British passports has fallen from 1.07 million to one million.
Finally, there are the election results. For the first time, Sinn Féin – the former political arm of the IRA – has won elections to the Northern Ireland Regional Assembly – although the three trade union parties together still have a higher percentage of votes and more MPs. Power-sharing is mandatory under the Good Friday Accords, but the most voted trade union party (the DUP) has refused to form a government with Sinn Féin without resolving the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol. However, the parallel mechanism to the Brexit agreements, created to prevent the return of the physical border between Ireland, creates a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. There will be new elections without an agreement until October 28.
In addition to these questions comes the death of Isabel II, after 70 years of reign, during which Charles III – considered less popular – ascended to the throne. The new monarch received cheers and booing during his visit to Northern Ireland for his mother’s funeral. At the ceremony honoring Elizabeth II, the regional assembly leader Alex Maskey of Sinn Féin praised the Queen’s role as a conciliatory figure in the peace process, but sent messages. “Let’s remember Elizabeth II’s positive leadership, let’s think about whether that leadership is still needed. And let’s be honest enough to recognize that that leadership is often lacking when it’s most needed,” he said. .
Source: DN
