The OECD on Monday improved its growth prospects for the eurozone this year to 3.1%, but worsened those of the next year to 0.3%, still estimating inflation of 8.1% this year and 6.2 % the next.
In the interim economic forecasts published this Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is more optimistic about the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the euro zone this year, improving the estimate by 0.5 points percentage ( pp.) compared to June, up to 3.1%, but cut by 1.3 pp. that of 2023 to 0.3%.
“In Europe, many economies are likely to see weak growth at best in the second half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 before some improvement in the rest of 2023,” the OECD says, noting that Falls in output in the near term are likely in some countries, including Germany, Italy, the UK and the eurozone, given pressure from declining real incomes and turmoil in energy markets.
Among the main economies of the euro zone, the OECD forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% this year (-0.7pp than in June) and contract by 0.7pp. in 2023 (-2.4 pp. before) and the French economy grew 2.6% (0.2 pp compared to June) in 2022 and 0.6 (-0.8 pp) in 2023.
For Italy it forecasts a GDP expansion this year of 3.4% (0.9 pp. compared to June) and 0.4% in 2023 (-0.8 pp.) and for Spain of 4.4% (0 .3 pp.) this year and 1.5% (-0.6 pp.) in 2023.
The OECD also warns of the impact of inflationary pressures in Europe, forecasting that inflation will rise to 8.1% in 2022, an upward revision of 1.1pp. compared to June, and to 6.2% in 2023, 1.6 pp more. than before
It also estimates that core inflation will reach 3.9% this year (0.1 pp. more than the estimate in June) and set at 3.8% in 2023 (-0.2 pp. than in the previous report).
The OECD explains that the projections are shrouded in “significant uncertainty”, pointing to global risks such as the increasingly pronounced reductions in energy supplies from Russia to the European Union, the escalation of food prices and the high indebtedness and real estate market in China.
Source: TSF
