Global growth is expected to slow from 3% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023, reflecting the impact of the war in Ukraine, predicts the OECD, which maintained its outlook for this year compared to June, but the cut back for the next.
In provisional economic forecasts published on Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) points out that the world economy was affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with global economic growth stagnating in the second quarter of this year, and Indicators Many economies now point to a prolonged period of moderate growth.
The OECD maintained its global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth outlook for this year at 3%, predicting that the G20 economies will grow 2.8% (0.1 percentage point (pp.) less than in June).
Among the main world economies, it forecasts that the North American economy will grow by 1.5% (1 pp less than in June), the Eurozone by 3.1% (0.5 pp more than previously estimated) and China 3.2% (1.2 pp less than before) .
For the United Kingdom, it forecasts an expansion of 3.4%, minus 0.2 pp. than in the June estimates.
For 2023, the OECD cut global and G20 growth forecasts by 0.6pp. to 2.2%.
He is also more pessimistic about the growth of the US economy, now forecasting an expansion of 0.5%, minus 0.7pp. than before
It also cut the outlook for the eurozone by 1.3 pp. to 0.3%, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.7%, minus 0.2pp.
“A key factor slowing global growth is the continued broad-based tightening of monetary policy in most economies in response to the higher-than-expected inflation target it exceeded last year. In addition, the erosion of real disposable income of households, low consumer confidence and the high prices of some energy products, especially natural gas in Europe, will negatively affect both private consumption and the investment business”, he states.
The Paris-based organization warns of “significant” uncertainty around the projections, estimating that more severe energy shortages, especially gas, could reduce growth in Europe by a further 1.2pp. in 2023, with a drop in global growth of 0.5pp.
The organization also notes that a further 20% increase in world oil prices in one year, with a rise in early 2023, which then fades, could add another 0.6pp. to inflation in 2023 and reduce world growth by between 0.1 and 0.2 pp.
Source: TSF
