Prices at the pump that are once again close to 2 euros per liter are a reality at service stations at the end of April.
A much larger increase for gasoline
Especially in the case of gasoline, with 95 E10 unleaded at 1.9042 on average in France at the end of April, an increase of 13.27 cents (+7.5%) since January 5.
In the case of diesel, which remains by far the most consumed fuel in France, the increase remains much more limited. At 1.7521 euros per liter in the last reading on April 26, we are 2.43 cents more than at the beginning of January (+1.41%).
Crude oil and exchange rates
But how can we explain this increase in fuel prices, particularly gasoline?
“If we compare the situation with that of the beginning of January, a barrel of oil rose by 9 dollars, from 79 to 88 dollars, which explains 6 cents of the increase in prices at the pump,” explains Olivier Gantois, president of Ufip Énergies et Mobilités. , the professional union of companies in this sector.
To this we must add the unfavorable evolution of the euro-dollar exchange rate. An increase in the price of the US currency, used to pay for barrels, causes a mechanical increase in the price of oil paid in Europe and therefore, ultimately, in the seasonal price. A change effect that explains the 1 cent increase since the beginning of the year, according to the UFIP representative.
Seasonal effects
The additional increase is explained by seasonality effects:
“The rise in prices has accelerated in recent weeks. With the start of the ‘driving season’ in the United States, we consume more fuel for leisure activities,” explains Olivier Gantois.
In such a market, which runs mainly on gasoline, the increase in demand has a significant influence on the price of fuel in Europe.
The increase at the beginning of the year in diesel (with a maximum of 1.82 euros per liter on February 16) is also explained by this strong one-off effect of demand.
“It is a product very similar to domestic fuel oil, which logically experiences a peak in consumption during the winter,” comments Olivier Gantois.
A limited supply by producing countries
Beyond these effects, global demand continues to grow, driven by economic growth in Asia.
“The International Energy Agency estimates that we will consume on average 1 million more barrels per day this year, from 103 million per day at the end of 2023 to 140 at the end of 2024.”
Another element: limited supply, particularly from OPEC+ countries, to support prices, which helps keep prices at the pump high.
We must also add the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine:
“The European boycott of Russian oil does not have a direct impact on demand and, therefore, prices, but it causes some nervousness in the markets,” explains Olivier Gantois.
What will happen in the coming months?
If the evolution of prices remains (unfortunately) impossible to predict, the UFIP representative dares to make a prediction:
“Given that oil prices have remained relatively stable for a year and a half, with crude oil prices between $75 and $90 from the end of 2022, we should remain at stable prices for the next few months.”
Although average prices currently remain at high levels, there are still significant differences between stations. Our search engine allows you to find the cheapest station in your apartment or near you.
Source: BFM TV
