The government wants to move fast. Only three meetings with the social partners are planned. The first this Monday and then another two in November, so that the new rules can come into force, starting in early 2023. For the executive, there is an urgency. Despite an unemployment rate of 7.4%, companies have never had such a difficult time hiring. This is the case of more than 67% of companies in the manufacturing industry and more than 59% of service companies. Historically high levels that sometimes penalize activity.
However, according to the executive, these difficulties are linked in part to our unemployment insurance system, which is not fully performing its function. “The model is not protective enough when the economic situation deteriorates. It is too protective when the economic situation improves”, explains the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt, with supporting figures: “During a period of job creation, the proportion of job applicants eligible for compensation exceeds 60% while it falls to 45% in times of economic depression.” “A paradox,” he says, hence the idea of modulating the rules according to the economic situation.
Reduce the duration of the indemnity or toughen the conditions
For this, it is necessary to discuss two issues. First, how to modulate the rules? One track has already been discarded. There is no doubt that the government should reduce the amount of compensation, while on the contrary it is trying to strengthen purchasing power. Two main levers remain: either play with the duration of the permissions, or play with the opening conditions of the rights.
Today, the maximum duration of benefits varies according to age and amounts to 24, 30 or 36 months for those over 55 years of age. Olivier Dussopt has already mentioned the idea of lowering the maximum duration for the latter. Therefore, it could be reduced to 30 or even 24 months.
Another option, play in the opening conditions of the rights. They have already been hardened during the previous reform. Today it is necessary to have worked 6 months of the last 24 to be compensated. Tomorrow it could be necessary to work 7 or 8 months in the same reference period… or to continue working for 6 months but in a shorter period, 18 months instead of 24. These are the ways that will be discussed with the social partners. .
When to tighten the rules?
It then remains to be determined according to what criteria we consider the market to be buoyant or not and, therefore, when the rules will be tightened. Once again, several avenues are on the table. Should we take into account the unemployment rate, which is “the most legible indicator” but which includes “a part of danger”, underlines the Ministry of Labor, or rather indicators of tensions, such as hiring difficulties?
For Olivier Dussopt, the unemployment rate is not necessarily the best yardstick because it can change rapidly. “I believe more in the relationship between the number of jobs available and those who are looking for work, or even the tensions over hiring,” he said during a hearing in the National Assembly.
The Ministry of Labor also admits the complexity of the exercise. In its working document, it specifies that whatever indicators are used, it is not certain that they reflect the situation of the labor market with total accuracy. As a safeguard, it therefore suggests creating a committee of experts charged with issuing an opinion, before any tightening of the compensation rules.
No modulation according to regions
Finally, the once mentioned idea of modulating the rules according to regions now seems ruled out, except for overseas territories. The Ministry of Labor insists in any case on all the problems that this would entail. It would be too complex, legally complicated and “would risk hampering the mobility of job seekers,” the document reads.
Source: BFM TV
