Power outages: what are the three scenarios that RTE is studying for this winter?

How many red Ecowatt signals will be broadcast this winter? Although the meteorological winter has just started, it is still difficult to answer this question precisely, but RTE has already established three scenarios with, for each, a possible range of Ecowatt red signals and therefore possible solutions for the load shedding operations.

The first scenario is the so-called “high” and corresponds to a success of the energy sobriety plan with individuals, companies and local authorities as well as a rapid commissioning of the nuclear reactors. In the case of a warm winter like 2019-2020, Ecowatts red signals would simply not be emitted and their number would not exceed three during winter in case of very cold weather like 2010-2011. However, this scenario is now considered unlikely by RTE, while EDF has fallen behind in its schedule to relaunch the nuclear fleet and despite the drop in electricity consumption already observed, particularly in the secondary sector.

Up to six red Ecowatt activations on Center Stage

The central scenario is more cautious regarding the availability of the nuclear park, which would gradually increase until January, and the capacity to import electricity from our European neighbours. In the event of a warm winter, France would not have to worry. On the other hand, Ecowatt red signals would be almost guaranteed in the event of a cold or even very cold winter. In the first case, their number would not exceed two and could even be zero if the sobriety measures were applied correctly. In the event of a very cold winter, they could reach the bar of six, a maximum threshold that could be reduced to three with properly applied sobriety measures.

If they are high, these figures are not comparable with those of the degraded scenario that foresees consumption following the current trend with a reduction of barely 2% compared to the pre-pandemic level, to which would be added strong tensions in gas, limited imports and a further delay in the commissioning schedule for nuclear reactors. In this case, four to seven red Ecowatt signals would be emitted if the winter is warm, but this number could vary between 12 and 20 activations if the winter is cold and even between 20 and 28 if it is very cold. The use of backup means, that is, load shedding, would therefore be very frequent.