House prices should fall somewhat in 2023, anticipating the real estate professionals heard by Lusa who rule out price drops, and even estimate an increase in locations sought after by those unable to buy in major cities.
Ricardo Guimarães, director of Confidencial Imobiliário (Ci), who conducts a global analysis, believes that after an appreciation of 18% in 2022, the following year will see some weakening in price evolution, accompanied by a possible reduction in the number of transactions .
“It seems clear to me that in a context of greater restrictions on purchasing power, there is pressure to bring about price stabilization,” the head of Ci told Lusa, “setting aside” a scenario of falling prices.
Looking at the different segments of the market, the president of the Association of Real Estate Professionals and Companies in Portugal (APEMIP), Paulo Caiado, believes that areas that have recorded very expressive valuations in recent years may see some stabilization in the coming months. to experience. “but much little expressive”, with the expectation that in the municipalities around the major urban centers, which have not been in great demand until now, there will be an opposite trend, an increase.
Moves that led him to believe that “worldwide before 2023” the “price of real estate will not fall”.
In a written response to Lusa, Rui Torgal, executive president (CEO) of ERA Portugal, also states that he believes that in 2023 there will not be “galloping house price growth as has happened in recent times”. However, he indicates that “with all certainty” there will not be an abrupt drop either.
Factors such as the lack of supply, or the fact that renting is still not an alternative for those who want to buy a house, contribute to this reading of the sector.
In this market, they say, the shortage of rental housing will put further pressure on rents, whose prices will already remain ‘naturally’ under pressure due to the current situation of high inflation.
The sector professionals interviewed by Lusa agree on another point. With no income to buy a house in big cities like Lisbon or Porto, many families started looking in other municipalities for the property that met their needs and could afford to buy in their pockets.
“It is to be expected that we will see a price increase in municipalities that have not been under such pressure until now,” says Paulo Caiado in an analysis of this geographic dimension of the market, which is due to demand for other locations.
Ricardo Guimarães recalls that increasing the supply of the real estate product is a process that takes time, pointing out that “without the capacity to quickly generate supply, the increase in demand in these places raises prices”. In addition, “much of the appreciation we see today comes from these markets,” he points out.
Specifying that demand for real estate in urban centers will continue from investors or clients with more opportunities, Rui Torgal points out that for middle-class Portuguese families “demand is undoubtedly more concentrated in the peripheral areas of the cities of Porto and Lisbon”. , is also starting to become “obviously the search for the interior”.
Given the current context of rising interest rates, Rui Torgal believes there may be some withdrawal or delay in house-buying intentions, with people turning to renting.
An opinion shared by Ricardo Guimarães, from Ci, with both expecting that people’s lives will not become easier in terms of prices, as they do not expect the prices charged to fall.
“It is likely that we will have an increase in demand and this will ultimately have an additional effect of pressure on rents, which would already have natural inflationary pressures,” says Ci.
For his part, Paulo Caiado believes that the high rents will ensure that many people will continue to choose to buy a house, remembering that between 2019 and 2022, the number of transactions related to used houses increased from 87% to about 90%.
This is happening because, for professional or family reasons, many people have had to sell their home to buy another and this movement will continue, he believes.
The data is not yet closed, but the information already available leads the president of APEMIP to estimate that the number of housing transactions will reach 165 thousand in 2022, slightly below 2021.
The amount involved should amount to 30 billion euros, an increase compared to 2021.
Ricardo Guimarães also points out that the sales volume will experience a possible decrease in the number of transactions.
For ERA, the year 2022 will be “the best year” of almost 25 years of real estate activity in Portugal, with expectations pointing to a year-on-year increase of 10% in terms of turnover.
At the end of November, ERA had completed a €1.65 billion property sale.
Source: DN
