The shortage of housing in the country’s main cities will continue to keep house prices low in 2023, which are unaffordable for many Portuguese. Real estate agents are confident that residential property values could stabilize given the context of rising interest rates and the cost of living, but do not foresee any major setbacks. “City centers, such as Lisbon or Porto, will hardly see the value of their properties change, and in the main secondary cities they may remain,” projects Era Portugal CEO Rui Torgal. Only “in some parts of the interior, it’s natural to see a decline,” he says. Zome leader Patrícia Santos admits that price pressures will continue in the areas of greatest demand, particularly in cities. And, in the case of Lisbon and Porto, “this pressure is already starting to be felt in the most peripheral areas”.
Beatriz Rubio, CEO of Re/Max, recalls that the price increase is “the result of the mismatch between supply and demand” and must be admitted in this new year “a reduction in demand due to the rise in interest rates”. rates”. But this change in market dynamics should only lead to “some price stabilization”. continues to exist, prices will continue to be revised upwards.” Ricardo Sousa, CEO of Century 21, also predicts “a stabilization”, especially in the second-hand housing segment. Owners will be required to more realistically determine the sales value of their properties and adapt to the purchasing power of those looking for a housing solution.”
“The dimension of demand is much greater than the supply of housing on the market, hence the fact that in the cities of Lisbon and Porto, as an exemplary example, we have such high prices, accessible only to a minority of Portuguese and also for a growing number of foreigners”, emphasizes the president of the Association of Real Estate Professionals and Companies of Portugal (APEMIP), Paulo Caiado. And this market trend “should not lead to a general decline, especially since real estate, as is well known, is also an important and safe “haven” for investment”.
This is what Patrícia Santos also defends: “The sector remains one of the most profitable ways to invest money, if not the best, as the valuation of this type of asset is normally indexed to inflation”. Luís Lopes, President of the Associação dos Mediadores do Imobiliário de Portugal (ASMIP) recalls: “We will always have purchases from investors, especially foreigners, who continue to have a strong appetite to buy in our market, where despite the high prices for the Portuguese portfolio , are still quite competitive with the rest of Europe”.
Search is delayed
The Portuguese housing market should have closed 2022 with a number of houses sold very close to the number of houses registered in the previous year, ie just over 165 thousand. The data is not yet closed, but real estate agents recorded a slowdown in demand in the second half due to the rise in inflation and interest rates. In the accounts of Patrícia Barão, Head of Residential at JLL, the investment volume in housing will be around 28 billion euros, a value identical to that in 2021, due to the lower performance of the sector in the second half of 2022 Ricardo Sousa has another estimate and admits that the number of homes sold is up 5% and the global number of transactions is “slightly more”, driven by the rise in the average value of properties traded.
What is certain is that the real estate networks contacted by DN/Dinheiro Vivo are reporting a year of growth. Era is posting the best year ever for the brand in Portugal, with 14% increases in transaction volume and 10% in revenue. Zome expects a turnover of more than a billion euros, an increase of about 32%. Century 21 expects to close 2022 with an increase in the number and volume of transactions of more than 20%. At JLL, the estimate points to a 25% growth over 2021 in number of transactions and billing. Re/Max is also confident that 2022 will be the best year ever for the network in terms of several quantitative indicators: recruitment, contacts, acquisitions, transactions and billing.
Sónia Santos Pereira is a journalist for Dinheiro Vivo
Source: DN
