Close the country in all sectors. It is the threat of hardening wielded by the inter-union for March 7 if article 7 of the pension reform is not withdrawn by the Government, inflexible on this famous lowering of the exit age, which crystallizes the discontent. For this day of mobilization that pretends to be massive, the unions have decided to wait until the end of the school holidays. It is that we must not upset public opinion, of which, as the organizations constantly remind us, the vast majority is on their side.
But before March 7, there is the date of February 16: this 5th day of national mobilization against the reform will take place this Thursday, the eve of the end of the examination of the text by the National Assembly, while two areas are in the school. vacation. However, on the eve of this new day of mobilization, would the movement show signs of losing strength? SNCF traffic will only be slightly interrupted, with two out of every three trains on average nationwide. In Ile-de-France, same tone with few disturbances.
Between the multiplication of demonstrations and the hardening of the movement, the unions seek to maintain pressure on the government without demobilizing the people.
The proof by the numbers
To hit hard, the unions must “repeat the mobilizations and have a lot of people,” sums up Dominique Andolfatto, a professor of political science at the University of Burgundy. The unions must demonstrate that they are capable of mobilizing in numbers, that the people are in the streets, on their side.
If the demonstration on March 7 were to gather en masse, for example exceeding the threshold of 1.5 million people, it would be a big blow that could change the situation, he said.
Until now, the days of mobilization have effectively gathered between 750,000 and 1.27 million people according to the figures of the public authorities to which Dominique Andolfatto also referred.
It is not easy to gather, but it is important: the number counts and no day of mobilization is negligible, according to him. That of March 7, therefore, does not eclipse that of this Thursday. He also points out that some people could “reserve” for the first Tuesday in March at the expense of February 16. In addition, zones A and B are on vacation this week, which may herald less mobilization. Each strike day also weighs on their wages, he said before adding that, however, unions cannot afford to lose face this Thursday either.
“All dates are important”
The CFE-CGC considers that “the peak of mobilization that the Executive and parliamentarians should consider is that of Saturday, February 11, since today there are zones A and B during school holidays.” The union organization does not pronounce on the scope of the movement on Thursday but emphasizes on the contrary that it is the figures for Saturday the 11th that are “referential”. The CFDT believes that all dates are important, both February 16 and March 7.
The leaders of the CGT and CFDT, Philippe Martinez and Laurent Berger, announced that they will parade in Albi (Tarn) on February 16. For Dominique Andolfatto, this change in tactics compared to the previous mobilization where the union leaders had met in Paris, was thought of as a kind of “revolt of the sub-prefectures”. The unions want to show that the province is just as mobilized as the capital and the big cities. They will be able to take advantage of this Albigensian meeting to communicate about the importance of discontent in smaller towns in the event that the total number of protesters does not live up to their expectations this Thursday, he said.
Communication remains an essential weapon for both unions and government. But unions have an even more powerful weapon: public opinion.
Beyond the numbers, what counts is public opinion
If three million people take to the streets, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne comes out, says Jean-Claude Ducatte, president of the EPSY consultancy. An unlikely hypothesis at the moment.
But for Jean-Claude Ducatte, the essential thing is not in the figures, in those in any case.
For Jean-Claude Ducatte, the people who have been marching for several weeks are not only demonstrating against the reform. They also express a general “fed up” against the government. If we follow this logic, the next demonstrations will be successful if they intensify the discontent, thus increasing the number of French people who oppose not only the reform, but also in the government, which would put it in trouble for the next elections, continues the specialist.
No chance of Article 7 being removed
If the pension reform contains twenty articles, the unions oppose one article in particular: the one that provides for the increase in the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years. However, for Bernard Vivier, director of the Higher Institute of Labor, “there is no possibility” that article 7 will be eliminated. He is far from the only one who thinks so. Otherwise, the power would lose “all credibility”, he explains.
The strategy of the most legalist unions -among which are the CFDT and the CFE-CGC among others- is to maintain constant pressure on the government to make it understand “that they will pay dearly in the next elections”, says Bernard Vivier, echoing the words of his colleague Dominique Andolfatto. He also salutes the unity that the unions have managed to maintain so far. A unit that he maintains, according to him, because Philippe Martínez, general secretary of the CGT, did not initiate more violent actions.
The unions still believe in it. Questioned by BFM Business, the CFDT and the CFE-CGC expressed their wish to continue the fight until article 7 is eliminated. The CFDT insisted on the party responsible for the coming demonstrations. The first union in France that does not want to hinder the French but to make them march against the reform.
Source: BFM TV
