“I believe that in the state the financial and economic risks are too great.” To approve his pension reform, Emmanuel Macron invoked article 49.3 of the Constitution on Thursday, suggesting that this project was essential given the worrying state of public finances in a context of rising rates.
From the outset, the Government has stated that the reform will “save the pension system” by reducing the system’s deficit, which it estimates at 13,500 million euros in 2030. But the text approved by the mixed commission will allow, does it really achieve it? ? goal?
Initially, the Government project had savings of 17,700 million euros thanks to the raising of the legal age and the acceleration of the increase in the contribution period. At the same time, new expenses amounting to 4,800 million euros are foreseen (revaluation of reduced pensions, adjustment of the long-career regime, etc.), including 3,000 million to maintain the retirement age at 62 for people with disabilities at age 62. There remained, therefore, a deficit of between 500 and 600 million euros for 2030 that the Executive had planned to cover thanks to an increase in employer contributions to old age. Enough to reach a surplus of the pension system of 300 million euros.
Concessions to the Republicans
Since then, the administration has made several concessions to try to convince elected Republicans to vote for its reform. Modification of the long-career regime, bonus for mothers… The new total expenditure finally amounts to about 6,000 million euros, partly offset by additional income (strengthening the fight against social fraud, tax harmonization of benefits retirement, etc.).
It is not enough to ensure the balance of the regime since “all these measures taken from start to finish make the text as it is today, when it leaves the Senate, cost an additional 450 million euros,” Bruno Le Mayor warned at the beginning of March .
According the parisian, an additional tax on tobacco is being studied to cover this deficit, the precise amount of which has undoubtedly varied somewhat since the Mixed Mixed Commission. What has relaunched the long-running system that should cost a total of 700 million euros. Meanwhile, the 5% premium for mothers is maintained (300 million euros per year).
The CDI seniors should cost you less than expected. The measure was initially estimated at 800 million euros per year. A cost considered too high for the government. Finally, a compromise was found in CMP: it will only be an experiment until 2026 with a cost of 100 million euros per year.
Source: BFM TV
