At this point, the outcome is uncertain. Polls in Spain point to an advantage for the PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. But it seems that the people will not be able to rule alone, without the support of other parties, such as the PSOE (already ruling in alliance with Unidas Podemos). Originally scheduled for the end of the year, parliamentary elections will now take place on July 23, next Sunday.
In Portugal, the latest polls also do not guarantee a majority for either party. However, “the equation isn’t exactly that fluid”says DN António Martins da Cruz, former Portuguese ambassador to Madrid and foreign minister between April 2002 and October 2003. “There is a peculiarity in Spain: all regions have governments, and that is an important factor”, the diplomat analyzes, that to remember Catalonia and the Basque Country even have another peculiarity: the independence movements and parties. Until now, these parties, especially in Catalonia, have supported the PSOE government in parliament, at visible levels, for example for the adoption of laws and budgets. We don’t know what terms they will ask for continued support if a PP government fails’ he refers.
Despite the differences, there are some traits that unite the two countries politically. In the European Parliament, the two socialist parties are “in the Group of Socialists and Democrats”, “the PSD and the PP, in the European People’s Party”. But the parties with which they can form a coalition in one case differ, according to the diplomat. “In Spain, for example, the communist party practically does not exist. In Portugal it still has some expression. Vox, on the other hand [de extrema-direita, e possível aliado do PP] has some minor differences with Chega, in terms of what they stand for,” he analyses. Diogo Noivo, a political scientist, explains that “PSOE eventually joined forces with Unidas Podemos, a much more radical party than Bloco de Esquerda or Bloco de Esquerda or PCP, this broke with the tenets of Spanish democracy”.
Bruno Costa, a political scientist and researcher at the University of Beira Interior (UBI), points out that “António Costa modeled the action of Sánchez in Spain with the construction of the device, which rules with the support of several far-left parties. A new political cycle in Spain, with a possible coalition between PP and Vox, can send the message of normalization of these alliances,” he recalled, which already exist in the “regional and local” context in Spain, something that in Portugal, only happens in the Azores.
“Alberto Nuñez Feijóo’s attitude weakened Vox. If there is any conclusion to be drawn from the Spanish context, this is it. The discourse you have here regarding Chega should move more in this direction.” – Diogo Noivo, political scientist and consultant
But Diogo Noivo recalls another dimension: the sanitary napkins traditionally made for the more radical parties on the right. “The former president of the PP, Pablo Casado, said from day one that ‘with Vox, no, never, never’ govern alone, but who, if necessary, will be able to make minimal arrangements,” he recalled. This, in his opinion, “empty Vox, looking for voters”. Why? “In short, what Alberto Núñez Feijóo said was that voting for the PP or Vox could end up being the same, taking into account that it would end in the end of the Sánchez government. This attitude weakened Vox. If there is one conclusion to be removed from the Spanish context is this. The discourse they have here regarding Chega should go more in this direction”. Still, says the political scientist, “no other comparisons should be made. Sare very different contexts, which ultimately have their own specificitieslike the aforementioned separatist movements.
Relationships should not be compromised
In government since 2018, Pedro Sánchez has shared his administration with António Costa, the Portuguese Prime Minister. Previously, the Spanish government was led by Mariano Rajoy, from the PP, who had been in office since 2011 (the year in which the PSD government was here, led by Pedro Passos Coelho).
Now Spain is going to early elections, after a PSOE defeat across the board in the last regional elections (on May 28). Of the nine autonomous communities in which they governed and which went to the polls, the socialists won an absolute majority in only one. The People’s Party (PP) came out as the big winner in the elections.
If the forecasts are confirmed now, the administration of Pedro Sánchez, one of António Costa’s most important allies, could come to an end (the Spanish Prime Minister even attended the PS’ birthday in April). However, any change in the Spanish government should not harm relations between the countries. Martins da Cruz recalls that “looking at the past 30 or 40 years, it is possible to conclude that. Whether or not governments share the same ideology, they have always managed to live together and relations have never been compromised.Diogo Noivo is of the same opinion: “I am very skeptical about the lessons to be learned from Spain. But I really don’t see any major effects on relations between countries.”
“The equation [entre Portugal e Espanha] it’s not exactly that liquid. There is a peculiarity in Spain: all regions have governments, and that is an important factor.” – António Martins da Cruz, former Ambassador to Madrid. Former MNO
For Bruno Costa, the analysis is the same: “I don’t foresee any major changes. Regardless of the color of the government, there is a fundamental political, economic and diplomatic relationship between the two countries, who share the same vision for the future of Europe in different sectors.”
The defeat of the PSOE could keep Europe from Costa
Looking at both cases, there are also signs confirming the end of the dominance of two traditional parties (PS + PSD, here; PSOE + PP, in Spain). “This is a Spain in which bipartisanship no longer exists. Both the PSOE and the PP, as everything indicates, will need other political actors to govern,” Diogo Noivo analyzes.
“The election could determine Pedro Sánchez’s future in Europe. A possible defeat could open doors for the PSOE leader to try for a European post, limiting António Costa’s chances.” – Bruno Costa, political scientist and researcher at UBI
But for Bruno Costa, the situation is different. “There is a margin of mimicry of behaviors and specifications of the systems [eleitorais]. In both cases we already had a more pronounced dichotomy, and now we see more openness and party diversity in both cases. There are those who believe in a change in the political cycle in Spain, in continuity with the results of the regional and autonomous elections, and this change may cause a “snowball effect”, analyze. With the Europeans on the doorstep (in 2024), could this mean that a possible defeat of the PS would mean early elections? Bruno Costa does not believe. “They take place in the middle of a mandate with an absolute majority, elections characterized by strong abstention and less relevance of the helpful vote, which will create difficulties for the PS, but also for the PSD.” However, the researcher points to another variable in the equation: a possible defeat by Pedro Sánchez in next Sunday’s parliamentary elections. “it could open doors for the PSOE leader to try for a European position. This would limit António Costa’s chancessince they belong to the same European political family,” he says.
Source: DN
