Pedro Nuno Santos is the Portuguese favorite to win the PS elections (52%) and the Socialist candidate most likely to become Prime Minister (50%), according to a survey by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF. José Luís Carneiro (38%) only appears to be ahead of his main rival (34%) when asked who would make a better prime minister. However, when Pedro Nuno Santos only analyzes the results among socialist voters, he leaves Carneiro behind in all chapters.
The former Minister of Infrastructure has a two to one advantage over the still holder of the Domestic Governance portfolio. This is the case when the Portuguese are asked which of the two is most likely to win the PS elections, which will take place on December 15 and 16 (52% versus 26%), and also when the question concerns parliamentary elections on December 15 and 16. March 10 and the likelihood that one of them will become the next Prime Minister (50% vs. 24%).
The choices in PS
It is true that the Portuguese do not vote on the choice of the secretary general of the PS. Therefore, what potential socialist voters think has greater significance. And when the analysis focuses on the results of this segment of the sample, the difference is even greater: on the question about the race for party leadership, Pedro Nuno Santos reaches 61% and extends the advantage to 35 points; As for the probability of becoming head of government, it rises to 59%, 32 percentage points more than Carneiro.
It is also true that socialist voters will not choose the next leader. And the investigation does not reach the point of determining how PS members can vote. But also in this accounting an advantage can be foreseen for Pedro Nuno Santos: in the shotgun count, which is updated every day, he leads those who have the ability to mobilize voters for the direct votes, due to their connection with the apparatus, or that is to say among deputies, mayors and municipal and district leaders.
Right pressure
There is only one point on which José Luís Carneiro can claim victory: it is he who collects a larger percentage (but not a majority) when the question is which of the two would be a better prime minister. That is four points more than Pedro Nuno Santos, but this is also the question that more and more people cannot answer (28%), even though the survey was conducted after more than a week had passed since the announcement of the candidacies . .
On the other hand, if the country in general appreciates Carneiro’s qualities even more, among the Socialists it is Santos who wins again, albeit by a small margin: 44% against 41% think he would be a better prime minister. The still Minister of the Interior is only ahead of the former Minister of Infrastructure among the Portuguese because he is clearly winning among voters of all right-wing parties. On the contrary, the ‘maestro’ of the first version of the device enjoys, in addition to the socialists, the admiration of those who vote more left (BE and CDU).
What to do with a victory without a majority?
The Portuguese are quite divided about what the PS should do in the event of a victory in the parliamentary elections without an absolute majority. Yet on the left there are more people who defend agreements or coalitions (46%) than those who prefer a socialist government in the minority (41%). Once again the result is different among PS voters, and again by a ratio of two to one: 60% want agreements with blocistas and/or communists, 30% want the PS to rule in a minority. Another sign that the apparatus’ maestro has an advantage over the centrist minister. If an agreement and/or coalition is at stake, the solution with the greatest support is to bring together BE and CDU simultaneously, as in 2015. In support of a lone socialist government, Liberal, Social Democratic and Chega voters stand out . The 46% of Portuguese who defend left-wing solutions are divided on the formula: a part (47%) understands that this implies the participation of other parties in the government, with an emphasis on voters on the right; the other part (44%) considers it sufficient to repeat the solution of parliamentary influence agreements, with an emphasis on socialist voters.
DETAILS
Who wins
Pedro Nuno Santos wins all the segments in which the sample is divided (regions, gender, ages, social classes and party votes) when the questions are about favoritism in the internal struggle or about the chances of becoming Prime Minister.
Who convinces
When the question is about who would be a better Prime Minister, Carneiro stands out among those living in the Northern Region (plus 13 points), those who are 65 years or older (plus 24 points) and those with higher incomes (plus plus 19 points). points).
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 802 effective interviews: 675 online interviews and 127 telephone interviews; 389 men and 413 women; 172 between 18 and 34 years, 199 between 35 and 49 years, 206 between 50 and 64 years and 225 for people over 65; Norte 257, Centro 165, Sul e Ilhas 142, AM Lisboa 238. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between November 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 71.75%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
