“Parties in consolidation”, what are IL and Chega worth as a threat to PS and PSD?

“The system is built in such a way that the two major parties can rule alone and therefore has all the conditions for smaller parties not to assert themselves.” The analysis is from Jorge Fernandes, a political scientist and researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon. “We have one country and practically two different electoral systems: in Lisbon, Porto and other major centers small parties manage to win votes – something that is practically impossible in smaller circles and which is ultimately a punishment,” he adds.

If we look at the composition of the parliament since 1976 – the first year after April 25, when parliamentary elections were held for the first time by universal suffrage after the fall of the Estado Novo – Jorge Fernandes’ claim is well founded: virtually all minor parties emerged throughout history were ephemeral. The Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) led by Hermínio Martinho appears to be the exception that proves the rule. Founded in 1985 in a social context of austerity applied by the government of the central bloc of PS (led by Mário Soares) and PSD (with Mota Pinto as leader), the party manages to have 45 deputies in that year’s legislature – a number that was never achieved (in the next election, in 1987, with Ramalho Eanes as party leader, he won only four seats in the Chamber; in 1991 he disappeared from Parliament).

The exception – which still exists – seems to be the Bloco de Esquerda, which has never left Parliament since its creation in 1999.

Paula do Espírito Santo, political scientist and researcher at the Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP), refers the explanation of these phenomena to the socio-economic situation of each election. “More than the system, the explanation lies in the specific contexts, which ultimately create parties that can break with the paradigm and with the installed power,” he explains.

Given this, what are the chances of the Liberal and Enough Initiative – two of the three most recent parties in parliament (the other being Livre) – if they stand up for themselves and don’t disappear from the chamber? For António Costa Pinto, researcher at ICS, the chance of success is high. “More than the electoral system, it is important to understand the limitations of the left and the right. The PS has had parties on the left for years, the PSD is only now starting with parties on the right,” he notes. “Even looking at Europe, I would say the trend is this: the most anti-party and anti-system votes, also the result of electoral dynamics. Who is capitalizing? The parties more to the right,” he adds. With this, he concludes, “absolute majorities will become increasingly difficult”.

The new president of the Liberal Initiative, Rui Rocha, also addressed this issue in his election speech on Sunday evening, announcing that the party will propose a change to the electoral system. The intention is to set up a national compensation circle that mainly benefits and appreciates the votes in the regions where fewer deputies vote.

Center in danger?

Extending the analysis to European politics, there are recent examples of so-called traditional parties that have practically disappeared in the specific context of each country. PASOK in Greece is such a case. Until 2012, the left-wing Social Democrats shared voting intentions with the right-wing Nova Democracia. The balance was upset by the arrival of new political forces such as Syriza, from the radical left.

The chance of something like this happening in Portugal is still small, according to Paula do Espírito Santo. Mainly due to one factor: “Both parties are in consolidation.”

According to Riccardo Marchi, professor and researcher at the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences (FCSH) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, “Both the Liberal Initiative and Chega benefited from a certain right-wing crisis and sought votes of abstention. But they are still consolidating parties,” he said.

António Costa Pinto has a different view, especially in the case of the Liberal Initiative. “Not wanting to put a literal meaning into the equation, the IL appears to be a party replacing the CDS on the right, not least because they have some lines in common,” he says. However, Jorge Fernandes has doubts about the Liberals’ ability to assert themselves as a third force on the right. “The IL has experienced strong growth, but I doubt it will have the capacity to continue on this path. There is always resilience from the major parties,” he says.

In the last parliamentary elections, Chega and Iniciativa Liberal together had 12.13% (or 653,987) of the vote. For the political experts heard by the DN, this makes it clear that in order to govern, the PSD will always have to form a coalition with one of these parties (or eventually with both).

The idea party and the one-man party

Since their inception, the Liberal Initiative and Chega have taken different positions on leadership. If, on the one hand, André Ventura has led Chega since the party was founded in 2019, in the Liberal Initiative, things are different. On Sunday, the Liberals elected their fourth leader since 2017.

“Chega is a personalized party, where Ventura is central”, António Costa Pinto analyses. Riccardo Marchi – a specialist in studies of more radical right-wing parties – indicates that Chega is “unable to create strong opposition currents. Any opposition movement that arises is practically weakened”. For this reason, says Paula do Espírito Santo, “it is a party in the image of its leader, as was the case with the Democratic Renewal Party, of Ramalho Eanes. Unlike the IL, which is more a party of ideas and not of faces”, something Jorge Fernandes agrees: “IL ends up getting a different political density that cuts across the party.”

Comparison

Leaders: Founded about two years apart (IL in 2017; Chega in 2019), the two parties have taken different positions regarding internal changes. If, on the one hand, André Ventura has been at the head of Chega since its foundation, the case is different in IL: the Liberals elected the fourth leader on Sunday (the first was Miguel Ferreira da Silva, founder, followed by Carlos Guimarães Pinto and João Cotrim Figueiredo, of whom Rui Rocha is now the successor).

Legislative: In both cases, the first election race was the 2019 election, in which both managed to elect a deputy (Cotrim Figueiredo in IL and André Ventura in Chega). Within two years the parties had parliamentary groups with 8 (in the case of IL) and 12 deputies (in the case of Chega).

Presidential In the last elections for the presidency of the republic (in 2021), André Ventura ran directly for the position of president and came third (11.90%). A very different result than the IL candidate: he was penultimate, with 3.22% of the vote.

militants: The parties have also made a significant leap in the number of affiliates: according to the latest data, the Liberal Initiative will have some 6,000 members; Enough, at the last national congress (2021), claimed to have about 40,000 militants.

postures: Differences in ideological positioning are noted on both the left and the right. If on the one hand Chega is seen as more populist, extremist and even anti-democratic; For example, IL appears to be seen as a democratic party that stands up for reducing the impact of the state on people’s lives. So much so that PSD does not rule out a post-election coalition with IL – something that will not be the same with Chega.