The mixed joint commission approved article 7 on raising the retirement age to 64 years. What a rage the left and the RN who intend to present a motion of no confidence after a very probable 49.3. If that fails, a shared initiative referendum could see the government back down. Didn’t understand everything? We explain everything to you.
• The joint committee
The mixed joint commission (CMP) is the name that designates the meeting between 7 deputies and 7 senators who seek to reach a common version of a bill. It is customary for the National Assembly and the Senate each to vote on one version, with modifications by each chamber. This time, only the senatorial version was studied, in the absence of a vote at the Palais-Bourbon.
With a very favorable casting for the government -10 of the 14 parliamentarians are for the reform-, the Executive has little doubt that the parliamentarians will reach an agreement.
The LR, whose support is essential for the Government, will put all their weight so that the text that comes out of this meeting suits them as much as possible. With some success: the CMP voted to experiment with the senior CDI while the government was initially against it. Article 7 on retirement at 64, at the heart of the reform, was also adopted on Wednesday afternoon.
• 49.3
This article of the Constitution allows the government to approve a bill or the proposal of a private member without submitting to the vote of the deputies. Its use entails the immediate suspension of debates in the National Assembly.
If the Government wants to avoid at all costs a 49.3 with a potentially devastating effect, it is very far from obtaining the 287 votes necessary to approve its reform – and not 289, since two deputies remain vacant. According to the BFMTV count, only 222 MPs say they are ready to vote in favor of the bill.
In the ranks of the executive, we are always trying to convince the entire camp of the LR deputies, considered as the necessary auxiliary force. Olivier Véran indicated this Wednesday that the issue had not been raised in the Council of Ministers. However, an exceptional Council of Ministers could approve its use.
Elisabeth Borne burst into optimism on Tuesday, judging that she had “a solid majority” for her reform.
• Motion of censure
Provided by the Constitution, the vote of no confidence allows the National Assembly to overthrow the government. This is the only way to prevent the adoption of a text after resorting to 49.3.
It must be presented within 24 hours by at least 10% of the deputies, that is, 57. It is then debated in the following days. To be approved, the motion of censure must receive an absolute majority, that is, 287 votes.
The National Rally and La France insoumise have already indicated that each one wants to present one in case of resorting to 49.3; without much hope of success. More than ten have been presented since the start of the new legislature – including a last one on February 18 by Marine Le Pen after finishing the debates on retirement at 64 – and none have been approved so far.
But the deal changes if the political camps join forces. The LR deputies are working on the presentation of a motion of inter-party censure signed by elected leftists and deputies from the LIOT group.
It then remains to convince the deputies to a large extent to reach the 287 votes necessary for the motion of censure to be approved. This figure is achievable if the LR vote for it in their vast majority.
But Olivier Marleix, the president of the LR deputies, already warned at a meeting of the group on Tuesday “that it was not acceptable for the deputies to jointly sign a motion of censure with people from the left or from the center.”
• The shared initiative referendum
The shared initiative referendum is a complex procedure that has never been successful since its introduction into the Constitution in 2008, which did not prevent the communist deputy Stéphane Peu from raising this hypothesis Tuesday night on BFMTV.
According to this elected representative from Seine-Saint-Denis, at least 185 parliamentarians would be ready to present a bill for a shared initiative referendum (RIP) to block the pension reform.
This constitutional provision provides for the possibility of organizing a popular consultation on a bill “at the initiative of one fifth of the members of Parliament”, that is, at least 185 of the 925 parliamentarians and “supported by one tenth of the voters “, that is, 4.87 million people, whose signatures must be collected within 9 months.
The last attempt at RIP failed in 2019 on the issue of the privatization of Aéroports de Paris. In 2019, only one million people had signed up.
But not enough to dampen enthusiasm on the left. PS vice-president of the National Assembly, Valérie Rabault, said she “very much believes” in the blocking of pension reform by a RIP. The rebel Mathilde Panot explained that this constitutional provision was “in reflection” of the left.
Source: BFM TV
