The long-awaited moment has arrived and the suspense is still there. This Thursday, after a conclusive joint joint commission (CMP), the pension reform returns to both houses of Parliament. A passage to the Senate is scheduled for 9 am, before another in the National Assembly at 3 pm Both chambers will have to decide on the final version of the bill.
If the case seems to be heard at the Palais du Luxembourg, where the text was approved on first reading last Saturday, no mass is said in the Lower House. Unlike their fellow senators, House Republicans are divided. The government has multiplied the concessions, but disagreements persist. The latest compromise found this Wednesday in the CMP around long careers – the fashion for reluctant right-wing deputies – did not change much in the film.
The fate of the reform, if approved, will be decided by a handful of votes. In a relative majority position, the presidential field needs at least forty votes from the right-wing caucuses, unless the level of abstention lowers that threshold.
If the text is approved after a vote of the two chambers of Parliament, the macronie will be able to claim its democratic legitimacy. Otherwise, if it is rejected, the snub will be very severe for a bill presented as the “mother of reforms” by Emmanuel Macron. The option of 49.3 remains, which would allow the government to pass into force, without the vote of the deputies. Back in detail about these three scenarios.
A favorable vote in the National Assembly
The executive has been repeating it for days to everyone who wants to hear it: “a majority exists.” This is what Elisabeth Borne said on no less than twelve occasions before the deputies this Tuesday, during the questions to the Government. To achieve their goals, the presidential troops have multiplied the attempts -between threats of exclusion from the Renaissance group for the deputies who would not vote for the reform, telephone calls made to the wavering elected Republicans or compromise found with them in CMP this Wednesday-.
For now, the absolute majority is still not secured according to our estimates. More specifically, between 262 and 285 deputies say they are ready to vote for the pension reform. So far, the executive maintains his course. Regarding the main members of the Government mobilized by the bill and the Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed it during a meeting at the Élysée Palace this Wednesday night: “he wants a vote in Parliament” this Thursday.
If the coin lands on the right side, the executive will have won his bet. He will be able to establish the legitimacy of it. Certainly, the discontent around the reform would not go away. And the mobilizations could continue-Philippe Martínez, leader of the CGT, repeating at his whim that a “law, even approved, does not necessarily apply”, with the example of the first employment contract (CPE).
However, Laurent Berger, general secretary of the CFDT, admits this himself in the parisian:
“The scenarios are obviously different depending on the nature of the vote, if there is a 49.3 or if there is a positive vote from parliamentarians, the logic is not the same.
The latter, however, adds that “in any case, that does not mean that we are going to press the stop button.”
The rejection of the bill by the deputies
With other union leaders, he will go to the National Assembly this Thursday around 12:30 p.m. to put pressure on the wavering deputies. The centrals, like the oppositions on the left and the extreme right, dream of a vote against the government.
In such a case, it would be a very clear disavowal. The Macronista ship, which has been rocking for several weeks now, would be adrift. What meaning would the continuation of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term have after the rejection of this important bill? What about his reform ability?
Please note that an unfavorable vote would not necessarily mean the end of consideration of the bill. This could go into a second round, with a new parliamentary shuttle. I am not sure, however, that the executive, already weakened by these weeks of defending its text, will opt for this option. It would also be possible for him to rework it with the social partners. However, with a deadlock: the unions reject en bloc a postponement of the age of majority, the heart of the presidential project.
The Head of State could also take reprisals with the dissolution of the National Assembly, a power that Article 12 of the Constitution allows him. He let this threat float on Wednesday night. A way especially for him to put pressure on elected Republicans. Members of a party greatly weakened by its divisions, but also by Valérie Pécresse’s hungry score in the presidential election, could be in jeopardy if they had to campaign again.
However, in a post-pension reform context, it is not certain that Emmanuel Macron’s troops will be rescued in the event of legislative elections. In any case, the initial gap, a vote against pension reform, is unlikely to ignite. If the executive throws himself into the lion’s den this Thursday, there is a good chance that he is sure of the shot from him.
The activation of 49.3
If these last days have not reassured you enough, the presidential field has a 49.3. This article of the Constitution allows him to have a text adopted, without the vote of the deputies, subject to the commitment of his responsibility. Its use leads to the immediate suspension of the debates.
But at what price? Certainly, this “tool is constitutional”, as Olivier Véran pointed out, but the context is particular. Different from the one that surrounded the vote on the finance bill or the Social Security budget a few months ago. How would public opinion react, after weeks of mobilization expressing a massive rejection of the bill?
For the moment, the Élysée is delayed and hopes that “the consultations will continue [ce jeudi] to continue the mobilization”. Emmanuel Macron gathers at 8:15 am the leaders of the parties and the presidents of the majority parliamentary groups to take stock. On Wednesday night, the Elysee indicated that “all the institutional schemes are possible with the desire to advance in the country”. If the Executive finally pulls out the axe, it will first have to organize a Council of Ministers this Thursday morning.
By exaggerating confidence and determination to win a majority, he has in a way paved the way. “Some good minds think the government is saying this to shake off its appeal,” centrist MP Charles de Courson said on BFMTV-RMC on Tuesday. It would be like “saying ‘I didn’t want to […] but I was forced to ‘”. Not enough to prevent the presidential field from emerging largely weakened by the sequence.
And the oppositions are already ready to retaliate. The rebels want to use “every means at their disposal” to defeat the government. The left is studying the possibility of appealing to the Constitutional Council but also of a shared initiative referendum. An option that may lead to a referendum proposal, but which has never been successful since its introduction into the Constitution in 2008.
In addition, in case of 49.3, the National Rally and La France insoumise would present a motion of no confidence: the elected representatives of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party want to do it anyway. But above all, it is a cross-partisan motion introduced by centrist Charles de Courson and co-signed by elected LRs that could make the government sweat.
Certainly, the horizon of its adoption, made possible by the favorable vote of the absolute majority of deputies (currently 287) seems distant. But it would be achievable with the vote of the united left, the extreme right, the deputies of Liberty, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) and a good part of the elected representatives of the right. Above all, it would not arouse the same rejection by certain elected opposition officials as a motion by the rebels or the RN. In either case, the vote would potentially be played by just a few votes. Enough to worry and further weaken the presidential field.
Source: BFM TV
