Will the government fall on Monday? After the use of 49.3 by Elisabeth Borne to approve the pension reform, several motions of censure should be presented until 3:20 p.m. this Friday. In addition to a text signed by the Agrupación Nacional group, a “transpartisan” motion will also be presented, signed by the deputies of the Libertades, Independientes, Ultramar y Territorios (LIOT) group.
While the opposition seems determined and welcomes this announcement, the likelihood of the government being censured over this motion in the coming days is low today.
Because for a motion of no confidence to be approved, the favorable vote of the majority of the members of the National Assembly is required. Currently, 573 deputies sit in the Palais Bourbon: therefore at least 287 votes are needed.
237 votes are already guaranteed for the “transpartisan” motion: those of the left-wing political groups that make up the Nupes (149) and those of Agrupación Nacional (88). To these votes would be added those of the non-registered deputies who oppose the text (+3 or 4) and therefore those of the members of the LIOT group who signed the motion (+15 or 16). That’s a total, at best, of 257 votes.
Therefore, the opposition must obtain, for the motion of no confidence to be approved, at least 30 votes in Les Républicains.
Missing at least 23 votes
Problem: “do not add chaos to chaos”, the president of the Republicans Eric Ciotti. announced that none of the group’s deputies would vote on a motion of no confidence in the National Assembly
In the process, on our antenna, Aurélien Pradié, LR deputy for Lot against the pension reform, indicated that he had advocated in a party assembly for the filing of a motion of no confidence.
“Each deputy is completely free to participate in another motion of censure. I personally do not want to associate my voices with those of insubordinate France and the National Group,” he declared.
On Thursday night, BFMTV featured seven LR MPs who said they were ready to vote on a cross-party motion. The total, therefore, would increase to… 264. Insufficient, therefore, to overthrow the government.
However, until Monday, the probable day of the examination of the motions of no confidence, elected officials could join this list. Because a small majority of the population supports censorship, according to the latest Elabe poll for BFMTV.
If they could participate in a vote of a motion of no confidence after using 49.3, 55% of those surveyed would vote in favor of the motion of no confidence. 23% would vote against and 22% would abstain.
Source: BFM TV
