“Madame Borne played the match perfectly and burned through this shoot, in a way.” The words are by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of La France insoumise (LFI) pronounced them shortly after the prime minister activated article 49.3 on the pension reform to approve her text without the vote of the deputies.
In his metaphor, the triple presidential candidate, suggests that the future of the head of government is written far from Matignon. There are many reasons to believe so.
The reform, a “fiasco on all fronts”
It is true that Emmanuel Macron is at the origin of this bill, the contours of which he had outlined during his presidential campaign, but in fact it was Élisabeth Borne who carried it out. She is “on the front line” and “bears the responsibility” for a “fiasco on all fronts,” says Matthieu Croissandeau, a political columnist for BFMTV.
First grievance: the “hiccups”, in the “bottom”, symbol of a “badly done, badly scruffy” reform. The most significant example is the promise of a minimum pension of 1,200 euros for pensioners. On this issue, the government has found itself in trouble on several occasions, both because of the conditions that must be met to benefit from this measure, and because of the number of people affected.
Lost in the deal with LR
Then Elisabeth Borne also made several mistakes “on form”. Those of “underestimating” the unions and “overestimating” the Republicans (LR) whose support she expected, her majority in the Assembly being only relative.
As for the plants, it was not enough to “receive them (last fall) for three months to not let them go.” As for the deputies on the right, the ex-socialist fell into a “troop incapable of showing a form of unity” and therefore of ensuring an absolute majority in the executive.
Throughout the debates around the reform, Élisabeth Borne multiplied the gestures – about long careers, bigger, small pensions – in the hope of convincing the LR seats. The prime minister even went so far as to crown himself with the feathered hats of the party – its president, Éric Ciotti, the leader of the group of deputies, Olivier Marleix, the head of the right-wing senators, Bruno Retailleau – but that was not enough.
Other elected officials, close to deputy Aurélien Pradié or regional president Laurent Wauquiez, stood their ground, refusing to vote for the reform mainly because of disagreements over long careers. Result: after having exaggerated confidence -Elisabeth Borne repeated 12 times “there is a majority” this Tuesday during questions to the government-, the executive finally obtained 49.3.
“You have to go ma’am”
Quite a symbol for the Matignon tenant, whose general policy speech this summer revolved around her desire to “build” “compromises” in Parliament.
“Élisabeth Borne advocated the consultation, there she opted for brutality. She became quite inaudible like her speech yesterday when her voice was covered by the boos of the deputies ”, analyzes Matthieu Croissandeau.
Now it is very fragile. “We have to go, ma’am,” Marine Le Pen, patron of the deputies of the National Rally (RN), told her. In this sense, her group intends to present a motion of censure. This provision, if it gathers an absolute majority of votes in the National Assembly (currently set at 287), can lead to the resignation of the government and its leader.
The one on the extreme right has no chance of succeeding, the left refuses to vote for her. Instead, another, wanting to be transversal and led by the centrist Charles de Courson, could threaten the executive more.
237 votes have already been secured: those of the left-wing political groups that make up the Nupes (149) and those of Agrupación Nacional (88). To these votes would be added those of the non-attached MEPs who oppose the text (+3 or 4) and therefore those of the majority of the members of the LIOT group (+15 or 16). That’s a total, at best, of 257 votes.
The LR do not agree with the motion of no confidence interpartisan
Once again the elected LR are divided. Éric Ciotti announced that no member of his party would vote for the motion. But obviously, the boss of rue de Vaugirard is having a hard time keeping his group, whose “60 shades” are regularly mocked by his opponents. Thus, some could vote in favor of the motion of no confidence.
Aurélien Pradié will “ask the question” over the weekend. Pierre Cordier, a related LR deputy, was more affirmative on BFMTV this Thursday.
“I have already been deprived of my right to vote on such an important text, you can imagine that in a vote of no confidence to censure the government, I will not hesitate.”
But would that be enough? It would take at least thirty LR votes to adopt the motion, slightly more than the number of elected officials from this group who were willing to vote against the pension reform or abstain, according to our information.
“It’s not a personal problem”
Asked about a possible departure, Elisabeth Borne referred her fate to that of the motion of no confidence, recalling that she “compromised [sa] responsibility, that of [son] government]”, with the use of 49.3.
For her, the question of his resignation “is not a personal issue.” The Prime Minister thus recalled her mantra, indicating that the important thing is to “build by continuing to seek compromises, good answers.”
But can Elisabeth Borne still embody this method? “She is weakened and politically weakened. It is difficult to see how she could succeed in reaffirming her authority, her legitimacy and carrying out the new reforms that the Elysée will not cease to desire ”, points out Matthieu Croissandeau.
Source: BFM TV
