From the moment José Félix Tezanos, the sociologist who was once part of the socialist leadership, took over the presidency of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) in 2018 and changed the formulas for measuring voting intentions, all parties – with the exception of the PSOE – complain. It’s just that the estimates have proven inaccurate and biased, always predicting better outcomes for the left than those later in the polls. Only twice did the PP come forward: in July 2022 and yesterday, just over two weeks before the early parliamentary elections on July 23. But not all is good news for the right.
According to the latest barometer, the PP would have 31.4% of the vote (the best value obtained in the CIS of Tezanos) and get between 122 and 140 seats in the Spanish Congress. The PSOE appears with 31.2% of the voting intentions and can choose between 115 and 135 deputies. Third place would go to Sumar, the left-wing union project led by Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz (who remains the highest-rated policymaker), receiving 16.4% of the vote, winning 43 to 50 seats. It would outperform Unidas Podemos in 2019.
Vox, from the far right, fell to the fourth political power, getting no more than 10.6% and from 21 to 29 deputies – far less than the 52 it got in the election four years ago. It is because of the fall of Vox that, even in the case of a post-election alliance, the right needed far from an absolute majority of 176 to govern. Already a union between PSOE and Sumar, in the best forecasts of the CIS, managed to reach that majority. And even if they failed, the left could more easily gain a majority with the support of other minority parties.
For comparison, the latest GAD3 poll for the newspaper ABC it gave 155 deputies to Alberto Núnez Feijóo’s PP, 107 to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, 30 to Sumar and 29 to Vox. And Sigma Dos’s for Antena 3 puts the PP with between 142 and 145 elected, the PSOE with between 104 and 106 and both Sumar and Vox with between 33 and 35. In both polls, the PP only outperforms PSOE and sum. And if Feijóo reaches a post-election deal with Santiago Abascal’s party, he will have a sufficient majority to govern.
Among the leaders, the current deputy prime minister and holder of the Labor portfolio, Yolanda Díaz, is the highest rated in the CIS barometer, with a 4.7. Sánchez follows close behind with 4.68%. The current leader of the opposition has 4.3 and Abascal has the worst score with 2.96.
Debates
The latest CIS barometer for the parliamentary elections arrives days before the start of the election campaign – as early as tomorrow. The elections were brought forward to May 29 by Sánchez, following the electoral defeat of the PSOE in the autonomous and local elections the day before. The expected debates begin Monday, with a face-to-face between the socialist leader and the leader of the opposition, at Atresmedia.
Two more debates are scheduled during the campaign: one to seven, on July 13 on RTVE, with the parliamentary leaders of each of the seven parties that have their own factions in Congress – PSOE, PP, Vox, Sumar, Esquerda Republicana de Catalunya , Basque Nationalist Party and Euskal Herria Bildu. The last debate is on July 19, also on public television, with the presence of Sánchez, Díaz and Abascal already confirmed. Feijóo reportedly refused to participate in this four-player format.
Another four-way debate, on the 14th, hosted by Cadena Ser and El País, was canceled after Abascal had alleged scheduling issues (he had a debate outside of Madrid) from not attending. Since Feijóo had also said no, the debate would only be between Sánchez and Díaz, with the organizers opting to cancel the plans.
Source: DN
