oh Ecological threat report (ETR) is an ecological threats report, organized by IEP, Institute of Economy and Peacean international think tank, based in Australia, that publishes the Global Peace Index, the global peace index. It focuses on four categories of threats that are directly related to conflict factors: food insecurity, natural disasters, population pressure and water scarcity.
According to this year’s report, released today, sub-Saharan Africa is the region facing the most serious ecological threats. Since everything seems to be connected, the region known by the acronym MENA (Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa), like South Asia, are also the least peaceful regions.
The following 21 African countries are classified as “hotspot” countries. This means that they face at least one serious ecological threat and are among the 30 countries with the worst levels of Positive Peace: Burundi, Cameroon, Uganda, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Guinea, Chad, Niger. Equatorial Guinea, Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Somalia, Ethiopia, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania and Libya.
Seven of the countries that are worst at this level are Asian: North Korea, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Myanmar, with the remaining two being Latin American: Haiti and Venezuela…
oh Institute of Economy and Peace (IEP) estimates that by 2050, 2.8 billion people will live in countries facing serious ecological threats, up from 1.8 billion in 2023. Most of the increase will occur in sub-Saharan Africa. There are four subnational areas facing serious threats in the four domains assessed and all are located in two sub-Saharan African countries, Ethiopia and Niger. Nearly 69 million people living in these areas are exposed to a severe level of water scarcity, food insecurity, population pressure and the threat of natural disasters, the four factors measured by the study.
Food insecurity: a major problem worldwide.
The global food price index is currently 33 percent higher than in 2016, following successive increases in the wake of COVID, and after a further 18 percent increase following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to ETR 2023, there are 42 countries facing severe food insecurity. Surveys from these countries show that more than 65 percent of the population was unable to buy food for their family at some point last year.
More than one billion people in sub-Saharan Africa live with high or severe levels of food insecurity. This figure is expected to rise to almost two billion by 2050. 35 of the 52 countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa are extremely food insecure. 81 percent of people experiencing extreme food insecurity worldwide live in the region.
Water risk is also a key factor in conflict: water-related violent incidents have tripled on average since 2000. Globally, there are 46 countries where the level of water risk is severe and another 31 countries where the level of water risk is high. This happens when more than 20 percent of the population does not have access to drinking water. Two billion people live in areas without access to drinking water.
Comparative data: Portugal and Mozambique
As an example, let’s compare the data between Portugal and Mozambique, in terms of the risk of ecological threat (1 being the highest risk and 5 the highest risk): Portugal presents an overall result of 1.02 (while it has 1 in food insecurity, demographic pressure , water risk and 1.02 for natural disasters), while for Mozambique the values are 5 for all factors and 4.19 for natural disasters.
The report also projects the growth of megacities until 2050. Among the thirty-six largest there are no European cities, but there are several that already had a Portuguese presence: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Luanda, on a list headed by Mumbai. , with an estimated population projection of more than 42 million inhabitants.
Source: TSF
