Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, Minister for Relations with Parliament Penny Mordaunt… Or Boris Johnson? Among the names of possible successors that have emerged since the announcement on Thursday of Liz Truss’s resignation as head of the British government, that of “BoJo” shines with particular brilliance.
His eccentricities and bravado promise to make his eventual return to 10 Downing Street, just three months after he had to step down from his responsibilities, and six weeks after his actual departure, a most spectacular event. But could he be the next UK Prime Minister? if his”to returnit is quite possible on paper, however certain circumstances cloud his political horizon.
Boris Johnson starts counting his followers
This Friday, Boris Johnson seems to have the wind in his sails. Thus, without having officially declared himself a candidate for the leadership in the Conservative Party and in the government at the same time, he was able to begin to count on his support within the executive in power. while some betting shops It put him in the race, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters, “inclining rather” to Boris Johnson, effectively excluding himself from competing.
Earlier, the Minister for Enterprise, Jacob Rees-Mogg, also expressed his support. In fact, he has taken over the hashtag “BringBackBoris” (“Bring Back Boris” in French) which is popular with many pro-professional accounts. Tories.
It will also be necessary to “bring back” Boris Johnson in the literal sense of the term before even thinking about what follows. In fact, the man is currently spending his last days on an idyllic family vacation in the Caribbean. However, there will not be much to boost. Since Thursday, the Times he noted that he was considering running for power again to serve “the national interest.” In any case, he is expected in London in the next few hours.
No more than 60 references?
But the tourist’s journey home will not be a road paved with roses. “Go back to the beach!”, For example, David Davis, Conservative MP and former minister of Theresa May, launched from a distance, on the set of the LBC channel. A sign that Boris Johnson arouses at least as much enmity within his formation as he accumulates sympathy there. A problem to the extent that, in order to limit the number of candidates for Chief of Staff to three, the Conservative Party has increased the number of sponsorships to 100 to collect for each one -and until Monday, 2:00 p.m.- among its parliamentarians, which are 357 in number.
The platform that Boris Johnson could rely on seems narrow, to say the least. A former conservative minister, who does not hide his pro-Rishi Sunak activism, even decided his fate in the columns of the guardian this Friday:
“The hard truth for Boris is that support for him hasn’t budged since he had to leave. He had around 40 MPs with him at the time, maybe 20 more could let him go. But I don’t imagine he’ll attract more than 60. votes so… It’s over.”
bad family memories
It must be said that Boris Johnson has not only bequeathed good memories to his family. Among the pans left in the Conservative sink, we can list: his alleged plans to get his friend and MP Owen Patterson out of the mess his unofficial lobbying had put him in; his handling of the Chris Pincer case, this personality conservative suspected of sexual harassment and fondling of two men; and above all the scandal of the drawer of the “party gate“- this case with multiple revelations in which Boris Johnson is accused of having contravened the anti-Covid health regulations that he himself had promulgated.
This last hurdle stands out as the main obstacle on the road to Boris Johnson. Because the “party gate“it is worthwhile that he is under the purview of a parliamentary investigation. More precisely, it is because he is suspected of lying before the House of Commons, swearing he had ‘obeyed all the rules’ at 10 Downing Street and denying any party on the premises during periods of confinement – that concerns you today.
Commission of Inquiry: the Sword of Damocles until November
Established by vote last April, the Commission ad hoc The decision maker is due to start his job next November, and this for a likely duration of three weeks according to political journalist Theo Usherwood.
“Warning to Tories about a Boris Johnson comeback. The parliamentary inquiry into ‘Partygate’ is scheduled to start in November. We are talking about three to four hour meetings on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for three weeks,” he tweeted.
November? Liz Truss’s successor will be long overdue. MEPs must select two names from the three potentially registered next Monday before putting them to the vote of their 170,000 members next Friday.
Except that such a Sword of Damocles is not likely to reassure an opinion weary of all its political turbulence, arising from the shortest tenure in the history of 10 Downing Street, nor appease a kingdom that will have seen five Prime Ministers have been parading since 2016. Because Boris Johnson risks a form ofthe impeachment process: the Commission could decree the suspension of his functions as a parliamentarian and could even put his seat at stake on the occasion of a by-election.
“It must be remembered that Mr Johnson is still under investigation. Until that investigation is completed and he is found guilty or exonerated, there should be no chance of his returning,” even Conservative MP Roger Gale, a notorious Boris insider opponent, said. Johnson.
The base against the caciques
His camp formulates other reproaches against the latter. While his followers highlight the charisma of Boris Johnson, and point out that after all, having won the last general election in 2019, he remains the most legitimate to lead the Party until the next elections scheduled for 2024, his detractors fear the character’s approximations . .
After the defeat of Liz Truss’s economic program weighed heavily in the crisis that took her, some fear duplication. “This country needs skills in these times of great economic challenges,” said David Lidington, longtime executive of the Toriesfrom the BBC.
But these are criticisms of the bosses, the same ones who preferred Rishi Sunak over Liz Truss by far, before being overruled by their base last summer during the primaries. And the capricious Boris Johnson can always take advantage of his popularity and an ever-living capital of sympathy.
In any case, that is what the most recent YouGov poll suggests, which explores the respective chances of the putative candidates for the head of government, carried out on Tuesday, however, two days before the resignation of the prime minister. Boris Johnson had won the top position among the activists. Tories questioned, 32% of them seeing in him “a good replacement” for the one who had replaced him, against 23% for Rishi Sunak and 9% for Penny Mordaunt.
dangerous versatility
But here again, we are far from blank. They were only 36%, within a similar panel and from the same institute, to support their retention at the time of their departure. The statistics also point to an even more dangerous versatility for Boris Johnson. In fact, like Liz Truss, Boris Johnson is linked to the most conservative fringe of the Conservatives. However, given the recent defeat, the movement is in the lead on its right wing. “It is very difficult to see how a personality from the right of the party could do this now,” analyzed a source from the guardiandescribed as a Tory “veteran”.
So Boris Johnson had better think twice before leaving the clear waters of the Caribbean for these turbulent British waters.
Source: BFM TV
