Can war with Israel overthrow the regime in Iran? Between the two countries, in the war since June 13, a high fragile fire entered into force this Tuesday, June 24, after 12 days of a massive air conflict initiated by the Hebrew State to, among other things, prevent Tehran from acquired the atomic weapon.
Tehran, who denies and defends his right to develop a civil nuclear program, retaliates multiplying the shooting of missiles and drones in Israel. In Iran, the war left at least 610 people dead and more than 4,700 wounds, according to an official evaluation that only lists civil victims. Iranian shots in Israel left 28 people dead, according to the authorities.
Since the beginning of this war, the Hebrew State has decapitated the summit of the Iranian military hierarchy, eliminating several senior officials, such as the Cabinet Chief, Mohammad Bagheri and the chief of the goalkeeper, Hossein Salami.
The Israeli army also addressed Evin’s state prison, where political prisoners and opponents are arrested, but also the two French Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who “would not have been affected,” according to French diplomacy.
“Status quo”
But how much did the Iranian regime weakened, beaten by Israel and the United States? Could you give up under a mobilization of the civilian population? “The war has ended more or less. Therefore, a partner will be needed to discuss with Iran. However, this partner, for the moment, remains the regime, because unlike the ideas received, Iran has not completely lost the war,” he told BFMTV.com Sébastien Regnault, social science researcher and Iran.
Among the two protagonists, the moment is the moment of “status quo”, to “find diplomatic forms and achieve solutions for the stability of the region.” With this war, “Iran is relatively reinforced.”
According to the specialist, Israel, whose government asked the Iranian population to rise, “made a mistake” by bombing Iran. “Because by attacking the regime, he attacked Iran. And when attentive to Iran, for the whole society, whatever his opinion on the regime, there is a hardening of the population to defend Iran.”
The Iranians “have nothing in particular against Israel, but it was still Israel who attacked them. And it was the guards of the revolution who defended them, so there is also a part of recognition,” says Sébastien Regnault, remembering that the situation had already happened “at the time of Saddam Hussein, when he had attacked Iran (…).
“Get more freedom”
In the United States, in the foreground of the conflict, Senator Trumpist advocated a diet change in Iran, that Donald Trump finally seems to contradict. “No, I don’t want to. I would like everything to calm down as quickly as possible,” the US president said Tuesday with journalists. “A diet change leads to chaos, and ideally, we don’t want to see so many chaos.”
With the weakening of the regime and in a society where social networks and the press are controlled, what the Iranians “must succeed in doing, and that is the challenge of the coming weeks, is to find ways to amend the regime to be able to obtain more favors and more freedoms.”
According to Sébastien Regnault, far from international interference, “it depends on the Iranians to say what regime they need and what it means to find it to obtain it. Therefore, it is a dialogue that undertakes.”
Source: BFM TV
