The world needs to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, warns a new report from the UN Climate Change organization.
Released after a week of meetings in the Alpine town of Interlaken, Switzerland, this sixth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) summarizes all the other five documents produced by experts since 2015, noting that in the 2011s – 2020 the planet warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (ºC) in relation to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900)
“Humanity walks on thin ice, and that ice is melting rapidly,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, adding that the world “needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, at same time”, referring to the most awarded film at the last Oscar ceremony, “Everything everywhere at the same time”.
The synthesis of nine years of IPCC work recalls the need for humanity to act radically during this crucial decade to guarantee “a livable future”.
This summary report, which succeeds that of 2014 and will not have an equivalent in this decade, is “a survival guide for Humanity”, Guterres stressed.
In declarations to Agence France-Presse, the president of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee, considered that the report “is a message of hope”.
“We have the knowledge, the technology, the tools, the financial resources and everything we need to overcome the climate problems that we have identified,” he said, considering that the only thing missing is “strong political will to solve them.”
If not done, global warming will reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial values in the years 2030-2035, the IPCC warned in the report, adding that the projection is valid under almost all emissions scenarios. of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the short term, given their accumulation over the last century and a half.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing fossil fuel-based infrastructures would be enough on their own to reach 1.5°C, if they were not equipped with means of CO2 capture.
But “deep, rapid and prolonged reductions in emissions (…) would lead to a visible slowdown in global warming in about two decades,” the group of scientists said.
“This synthesis report underscores the urgency for more ambitious action and shows that by acting now, we can still ensure a livable future for all,” Hoesung Lee said.
The experts noted that “for any future level of warming, many climate-related risks are greater than estimated” in the 2014 report, based on the observed multiplication of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, and new scientific insights.
“Due to inevitable sea level rise, the risks to coastal ecosystems, people and infrastructure will continue to increase beyond 2100,” they said.
The climatologist Friederike Otto, co-author of the synthesis, said, in turn, that “the hottest years experienced so far will be among the coldest within a generation.”
The past eight years have already been the hottest on record globally and Otto’s forecast is correct “whatever the levels of greenhouse gas emissions,” says AFP.
The experts assured, however, that the economic and social benefits of limiting global warming are greater than the cost of the necessary measures.
“From 2010 to 2019, costs have been sustainably reduced for solar power (85%), wind power (55%), and lithium batteries (85%),” according to the summary.
In addition to the effect on the climate, the accelerated and sustained efforts “would bring many co-benefits, mainly for air quality and health,” said the scientists, who did not hide the price to pay, considering that “in the short term, the Actions require high initial investments and potentially radical changes.
The scientific consensus of the IPCC will be the factual basis for the intense political and economic negotiations in the coming years, starting with the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), scheduled for December in Dubai, where an initial evaluation of the efforts of each country is presented within the framework of the Paris agreement on the reduction of GHG emissions and where the future of fossil fuels will be negotiated hard.
One of the topics of discussion at COP28 will also be the “loss and damage” caused by global warming, which disproportionately affects the poorest countries.
“Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed the least to climate change are disproportionately affected,” said Aditi Mukherji, one of the synthesis authors.
Source: TSF
