The professor of Diplomacy at the Universidade Portucalense, Tiago Ferreira Lopes, warns that, with the arrival of winter and the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, “Europeans will face difficult decisions”. The professor even points out that the effects of this scenario are already beginning to be felt, with the recent protests in Estonia, the Czech Republic and Austria, a dynamic that the Kremlin “is trying to capitalize on”.
“The Europeans will be able to start, from here, to put pressure on governments not to support Russia – I don’t think that’s the way to go – but to dissupport or support Ukraine less and less,” he argues, citing the case. specifically the first – the Estonian minister, “who has been almost without a government twice this year because of the conflict”.
Kaja Kallas told Estonians that they “have to prepare for the possibility of partial blackouts during the winter, because Russia may go offline,” a warning echoed by the Latvian government.
“It is very likely that, from now on, in Eastern Europe we will begin to have this type of dynamic”, something that “obviously will bring the population to the streets as has already happened”.
In recent weeks there have been protests, although “little media coverage in the West”, which have filled the streets of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and, more recently, Austria. The message from the population is that governments must first protect those who elected them “and not necessarily protect foreign governments.”
The cold as a weapon
In addition to the economic dimension, the war side of the conflict can also change with the arrival of the winter cold. When kyiv fell, Russia showed the ability to “reorganize and position itself on the ground”, so the winter factor, says the professor, must be on everyone’s mind.
“In general, winter tends to be favorable to Russia, which uses it cyclically. It is enough to read a bit of Russian history, it is enough to go from the 19th century to the present day, it is not even necessary to go back to previous cycles, to understand how Russia often manages to use the cold sometimes to its advantage, “he warns. .
Source: TSF
