The Bank of France always more pessimistic for the French economy. In its monthly economic survey published on Wednesday, the institution once again reduced its growth forecast by 2025, from 0.7 to 0.6%. In March, he had already reviewed his estimates from 0.9 to 0.7%. Nine months ago, last September, the banqué of France projected a growth of 1.2%. In nine months, the institution, therefore, divided by two French growth anticipated for this year 2025.
After the growth of 1.1% in 2024, France is moving towards a new year of gloomy activity. And for a good reason, “the increase in customs tasks and uncertainty about commercial negotiations would weigh the growth of GDP in 2025” with particular exports that “would be reduced,” says the banquera of France.
Impact of customs tasks
A slight ornament is planned by 2026 and 2027 with a respectively increase of 1 and 1.2% in the expected GDP. However, keep in mind that the Banquil of France forecasts are based on a scenario on which the so -called “reciprocal” surcharge of Donald Trump would remain at its current level of 10% and it would not be noticed at the end of the 90 -day suspension decreed by the American administration. “What is not yet earned.
For the institution, the “increase in customs duties and associated economic uncertainty” would cost a total of 0.4 points from GDP to GDP for the tricolor economy by 2027. An impact less than that evaluated for the euro zone (-0.7 points according to the ECB), France is less exposed to trade with the United States than many of its neighbors.
Net deceleration in inflation
There is still good news for consumers: inflation will continue its reflux to establish itself at 1% (in harmonized data) on average during the year, after 2.3% in 2024.
This net deceleration is mainly explained by “a marked withdrawal of energy prices”, while food prices would positively contribute to inflation due to price increases that arise from commercial negotiations between distributors and industrialists, as well as the transmission of raw material price increases (cocoa, coffee) to final products.
The fact is that inflation would remain permanently under the famous 2% objective, since it is expected at 1.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. For their part, wages would increase faster than prices, around 2.3% on average each year between 2025 and 2027.
Finally, the unemployment rate would increase slightly 7.6 to 7.7% between 2025 and 2026 before falling to 7.4% in 2027.
Source: BFM TV
